Positions are still being jockeyed for in the American and National League playoff races. All the division leaders are decided, and the teams who will possess home field advantage throughout the playoffs have been decided…but with one game left, we still don’t know which teams are going to open the postseason at home. The Rangers currently have a one game edge on the Tigers for the home field race, but the Tigers possess the tiebreaker. If Detroit wins tonight and Texas loses, Texas is heading to New York instead of Detroit. The same is true in the National League, where Arizona trails Milwaukee by a game, but holds the tiebreaker over the Brew Crew. Because of the uncertainty in the NL’s wild card situation, all we know is that Milwaukee will face Arizona starting at Miller Park or Chase Field, or that they’ll be facing Atlanta at Miller Park. Also, the Diamondbacks will either be traveling to or hosting Milwaukee, or traveling to Philadelphia.
I got curious as to how important homefield advantage is to winning a playoff series. I looked at the last decade of division series (from 2001 to 2010), and looked at what team had homefield advantage, and how often that team won the series. Here are the results.
The record for the team who starts the series at home in the LDS is 22-18 (.550 winning percentage)
The record for the team who started the series at home in the LDS and plays a fellow division winner is 12-8 (.600 winning percentage)
The record for the team who started the series at home in the LDS and plays against the wild card team is 10-10 (.500 winning percentage)
The record for the team who started the series at home and had homefield advantage throughout is 12-8 (.600 winning percentage)
By looking at these numbers, there’s a clear advantage to starting the series at home. But it’s not a slam dunk. In fact, the advantage isn’t exorbitant over this sample size. In fact, the Tigers and Rangers historically go from a 10-10 record at home against the wild card team to 8-12 going to visit a division winner…a two series difference for what is assumingly a huge gap in talent. If the Cardinals make the playoffs, and Milwaukee hosts Arizona in the first round, they actually have a better chance historically of beating the Diamondbacks than they would beating the Braves, if Atlanta were to win the wild card and make the trek to Miller Park.
Baseball – it’s a crazy game.
