You’d think that the defending World Series Champions, returning basically everyone from the team that made a renegade run for the pennant in 2010, would be expected to be near or at the top of the talks for teams in the running for a return trip. And in an essence they are. Going into Tuesday’s play, the San Francisco Giants were 44-34, 10 games over .500 and were 1 1/2 games up on the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks in the suddenly combative National League West. But one look closer as to how they’re doing it brings up a stew of unlikely combinations, where a negative run differential, the worst run-scoring offense in baseball and (surprise, surprise) one of the best pitching staffs in baseball has them on the winning track.
First, the bad. This offense is terrible, folks. Not historically bad, but on pace to do so. The 2010 Seattle Mariners offense became the whipping boy for run-scoring impotence, scoring only 512 runs in a 61-win campaign, and the Giants are on their way to doing something along those lines. Their 265 runs in 78 games is the lowest in baseball, and puts them on pace for 551 runs this season. In contrast, the Boston Red Sox lead baseball with 409 runs in 77 games, meaning that they will most likely pass the Giants PROJECTED mark for runs scored in about 25-30 games. They have a team OPS of .659, with only Minnesota and Seattle having a worse mark.
However, even with the offensive ineptitude, the Giants are second in baseball behind Philadelphia in runs allowed with 268. Their -3 run differential puts their expected record at 38-40, but they are where they are due to an EXCEPTIONAL one-run game record of 22-11. The next closest team is the Diamondbacks, who are 17-10.
So the big question remains: How are they doing it?
As they have since the departure of Barry Bonds, they are doing it with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.. Their combined WAR of 13.7 is only behind the Phillies, with the usual suspects up top. Tim Lincecum (2.7) and Matt Cain (2.4) are having their usual stellar seasons, with Madison Bumgarner (2.4) having a great year in his first full year of pitching, even with his historically awful start still fresh in the minds of Giants fans. Of course, Ryan Vogelsong (1.7) looks like the NL Comeback Player of the Year and is making a case for Barry Zito being expendable, although Zito will get his chance to make his mark in Game 2 of San Francisco’s doubleheader with the Cubs on Tuesday.
The bullpen has also been very good, as the Braves are the only team in baseball with a better bullpen WAR mark. They rank third in K/9 IP (8.43), second in HR/9 IP (.40), third in ERA (2.93), third in FIP (2.94) and second in xFIP (3.29). This is all being done with a BABIP of .285, a perfectly acceptable mark to have. While Brian Wilson and his beard get the majority of the press due to him leading the NL in saves, it’s actually Sergio Romo who is having the better year statistically. His 13.5 K/9 IP is 5th in all of baseball and his 9 K/BB ratio is third best behind the surprising Kyle Farnsworth and Minnesota’s Matt Capps, and nearly all of Wilson’s saves are due to Romo’s ability to keep it a save situation for Wilson to capitalize on.
The Giants have also somewhat done it with their defense. Their UZR rating of 5.4 is 10th best in all of baseball at this point, and Pablo Sandoval (yes, Kung Fu Panda) LEADS the team in that category at 8.7. This is even with league-average or below-league average performances all across the board at other positions, including with players like Freddy Sanchez (-0.4) and Nate Schierholtz (-0.8) who are known to retain some value from their defense. The fact on a regular basis the Giants run out Pat Burrell, Cody Ross and Aubrey Huff in three of the four corners on a regular basis and still have a positive UZR rating is amazing in itself.
The Giants are also a product of their environment. With a park factor of .97, AT&T Park is one of the best places for a pitcher to perform, and the Giants are 24-13 at home mainly due to the fact that their pitching is amplified in that environment. Even though they have scored only 104 runs at home, they’ve allowed only 114, and with 9 wins in their final at-bat, they take advantage in those one-run ballgames.
All in all, there is quite a bit of luck involved for the Giants to be doing this well. Those 24 home wins? They won those games by a TOTAL of 32 runs, with 17 of those 22 wins one-run wins coming also coming at home. There definitely is something to be said about a team that wins the close baseball games, but teams win games in different ways. For the Giants, it seems that even without the capability to have even a halfway decent ofense, the current run-scoring environment is down, meaning that if you can pitch and you can do a somewhat average job on defense, you have a chance to win the close ballgames.
Going forward, San Francisco will need to address their offensive concerns at a number of positions, but with the trade market like it is right now, the Giants can’t do too much to improve without gutting their already depleted farm system. They will have to hope that Aubrey Huff can find some magic from his MVP-like 2010, that Pablo Sandoval can find his pre-injury stroke, and Brandon Belt can return from his injury and be a second-half contributor. That could help balance out the amount of luck the team has needed to stay on top of the division, but is also easier typed than done.
