Evan Longoria was one of the best players in baseball as soon as he was called up in 2008. He was one of the best players in baseball in 2009. He was one of the best players in baseball in 2010. This year it appears that things have taken a somewhat downward turn – he’s hitting .229, and his 3.1 Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) places him just 52 in the majors amongst position players – but a look passed that reveals that Longoria is still one of the best players in baseball.
Part of the reason for the lower fWAR number (he was at 7.5 in both of the previous years) is missed playing time. Longoria missed a month at the beginning of the season with an oblique injury, so he’s only appeared in 87 games and accumulated 370 plate appearances. In what is effectively a little over half a season, Longoria has already been more productive than an average player.
The other big cause for the drop is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is down to .232 after being over .308 every season of his career. There doesn’t appear to be much rhyme or reason for the lower BABIP, given his no unusual batted-ball profile (still a flyball hitter with a bunch of line-drives). That BABIP is dragging his whole line down, but in every other respect he’s been the Evan Longoria of old – if not better.
After striking out quite a bit as a rookie, Longoria has improved in that area every year – to the point that in 2011 he’s actually K’ed less often than the average batter. His walk rate, which had already started out as above average, has only trended higher. Improved plate discipline from someone who was already a very good hitter is impressive. Longoria’s also hitting for power like he has over his career, with 17 home runs already. Pro-rate that out to his more usual ~665 PA and you get 30-31 longballs. Plus, there’s the great glovework.
The bad luck with the injury and the balls in play* has somewhat covered up the fact that Longoria has upped his game this year. The dude is really, really good.
* If you were to give him even a .300 BABIP (which would still be a new low), he’d be hitting something like .278/.372/.518 – a career best (especially given the lower run scoring environment).
