A year after winning the National League Central, the Reds sat home and watched their two division rivals play in the NLCS. So what happened? Why did the Reds fall from their place in first? Do they have the pieces in place to take advantage of the Brewers and Cardinals if both of their big sluggers leave town?
WHAT WENT RIGHT
The Reds still scored a ton of runs. They were the NL’s best offense when they won the division in 2010 and their 735 runs was second best in the NL in 2011. Joey Votto followed up his MVP campaign with a year that was nearly as good, leading the NL in OBP and doubles. Jay Bruce broke the 30-homer barrier for the first time at the tender age of 24 (yes, it seems like Bruce has been around forever and no, he won’t be 25 until early April of next year). They got some strong supporting performances as well from guys like Ramon Hernandez, Chris Heisey and Yonder Alonso, which covered up for regulars that struggled quite a bit.
WHAT WENT WRONG
Their pitching dropped off of a cliff. Bronson Arroyo got old quickly, Edinson Volquez lost the plate early in the year and never found it, Homer Bailey missed a bunch of time with an arm injury, Mike Leake got caught shoplifting … it was not a good year to be a Cincinnati Reds’ pitcher. I mean, they gave 13 starts to Dontrelle Willis. Dontrelle Willis. The 2010 playoff Reds had a decidedly mediocre pitching staff. The 2011 non-playoff Reds had a decidedly bad one.
SURPRISES
When you have the sort of year the Reds had, it sort of goes without saying that there weren’t that many good surprises. Johnny Cueto managed to drop his ERA a full run despite a dropping strikeout rate. Alonso is a good prospect, but no one expected to see him rake the way he did in his quarter-season call-up this year. Brandon Phillips also had the best season of an already-good career. The Reds squeezed another good season out of the catching tandem of Ryan Hanigan and Hernandez. Heisey managed to hit for quite a bit of pop over a pretty extended stretch. Basically, a lot of small, good things happened that let the Reds’ offense stay at a high level despite some awful performances from guys like Drew Stubbs, Scott Rolen and Paul Janish
DISAPPOINTMENTS
I know I just mentioned a lot of position players that had bad years, but Volquez Volquez Volquez. Instead of improving on the shaky performance he gave after coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2010, he increased his walks and gave up home runs like it was his job. As a result, he spent a bunch of time in Triple-A and never really got into enough of a groove to help a pitching staff that needed his help pretty badly. It’s really quite an accomplishment to be worse than Arroyo was in 2011, but Volquez might’ve been. If he wasn’t worse, he was definitely more disappointing.
2012 CHANGES
Of the main contributors, only Francisco Cordero and Hernandez are slated to hit free agency. If the Reds really want to make a run at returning to the top of the division in 2012, though, they’re going to have to do something to fill the holes that last year’s club had. They can try to spend some money in free agency, but the best way to do that may be via an Alonso trade. He can’t play first with Votto there and he’s not a great outfielder, plus the Reds have Heisey and Bruce at the corners. If anyone can fetch the pitching that the Reds need in a trade (besides Votto, of course, who’s an entirely different story), it’s Alonso.
POSITION BATTLES
If Alonso’s not dealt, he’ll probably battle Heisey for time in left. Beyond that, a couple of young guys should be pushing to take playing time from veterans. Zack Cozart’s career was off to a great start before his ugly elbow injury this summer. He should be healthy by spring training and he’ll definitely be pushing Janish for time. Actually, I’m not even sure it’s fair to call it a battle. There’s also a chance that former Little League World Series hero Todd Frazier pushes Rolen for time at third, as Rolen’s career seems to be winding down at this point. Given Rolen’s penchant for getting hurt, though, Frazier might not have to do much battling for the spot.
