Behind every great rule, there are exceptions. Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP) certainly fits that description. Essentially, FIP attempts to describe solely what a pitcher does. ERA and wins also incorporate other factors such as defense, offense, randomness, managerial decisions, and the bullpen, but FIP attempts to measure only the pitcher. It does this by measuring the relative values of strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Strikeouts indicate stuff, so if you strike out a lot of guys, you have good stuff. Walks indicate control. Home runs indicate command because giving up home runs denotes the inability to keep the ball out of the middle of the zone. It’s given a coefficient to scale it to look like ERA, but it’s a better way to compare pitchers. Usually, it’s very accurate and will be within +/- 0.2 of a pitcher’s career ERA, but occasionally, there are exceptions.
Matt Cain is the most famous example. His career FIP is 3.74, which is very good but not elite, but his FIP is 3.40, which is not quite elite but is getting there. He does this by somehow limiting home runs to 6.8% of the fly balls he gives up, which is way under the norm of about 10.6%. How this happens is a mystery–his park might be the best answer–but it’s likely an actual talent instead of simply a matter of randomness or luck. This ability helps him prevent runs in a way that beats the system. That doesn’t mean the system is broken, but it reminds us that it isn’t perfect.
Ricky Nolasco is an example of the other extreme. His 3.79 FIP is almost identical to Cain’s, but his career ERA is 4.30, which is not particularly good though about average. How this happens is a mystery as well. His home run rate is 10.7%. He isn’t terrible at stranding runners, and his K/BB of 3.70 is absolutely awesome. But for whatever reason, offenses seem to turn those home runs or sequence innings in such a way as to get more runs than you would expect them to get. Again, this doesn’t mean the system is broken, but there’s clearly something going on here that isn’t matching up.
Anyway, Nolasco had another one of those nights last night. While he did get 3 of 4 outs by strikeout, he gave up 9 runs in 1.1 innings on the way to a 14-3 rout by the San Diego Padres last night. Getting 75% of your outs by strikeout is usually a good thing, and although he did walk 2 hitters, 9 runs in 4 outs is extreme. BABiP, of course, played its usual role, but this game was an exaggerated example of Nolasco’s entire career. For some reason, he just gives up more runs than you’d expect. So while we might be tempted to love the peripherals, some exceptions beg our attention, and Nolasco, despite what we might see as greatness, may be just a league-average starter.
Tonight’s Matchups: Tommy Hanson takes on Jhoulys Chacin as Atlanta tries to walk away with a tie series … CJ Wilson and Jered Weaver tangle in the second-best pitching match-up of the night … And CC Sabathia and James Shields will duel in the spotlight game of the night … For dessert in the desert, Zack Greinke will face off against Ian Kennedy.
