I’ve seen some Cincinnati Reds fans complaining about Jay Bruce’s production this year, so I was fairly surprised to see that he was actually hitting better this year than last year (relatively speaking). Bruce went 3-4 yesterday, hitting a home run plus walking twice to help lead the Reds over the Brewers. That brought his 2011 batting line to .266/.339/.506, with 21 homers. That doesn’t look better than 2010’s .281/.353/.493 but, well, it is.
Bruce is walking about as much as he did in recent years (~10% of his plate appearances). He’s cut down on his strike-outs a bit from ’10, but he still K’s quite a bit. That’s partially why his batting average is down 15 points. The other part of that is his batting average on balls in play, which has fallen from a career high of .334 last year to a seemingly more normal .293 this year (.291 career). Bruce has made up for the fewer hits falling in by sending the ball out where fielders can’t reach it. If Bruce gets to 600 PA and keeps hitting bombs at his current rate, he’ll end up smashing his career high and finishing with around 34 homers.
So I think the case for Bruce having a good season is pretty solid, but how is it better than 2010’s, when his OPS is down a point (.846 to .845)? The run environment, of course! Last year the average NL batter hit .255/.324/.399 (.723 OPS), so Bruce out OPS’ed that line by 123 points. This year the average NL batter is hitting .251/.318/.386 (.704 OPS), so Bruce has a 141 point edge. Even if his batting average is down some, Jay Bruce is in the midst of a career year at the plate.
Also last night: Derek Jeter picked up his 3,000th career hit (a home run, no less) as pasrt of a five-hit game; Cliff Lee homered for the Phillies, but that’s the only run the team got off Tommy Hanson as the Braves win 4-1 in extras; the Dodgers got no-hit going into the 9th inning, but ended up winning 1-0 in walk-off fashion over the Padres; and much more.
What to watch tonight: The Rays send James Shields to the mound to face CC Sabathia, hoping to get to the 50 win mark before the All-Star break; as do the surging Angels, as Dan Harden takes the hill against Felix Hernandez; Justin Verlander goes for Detroit and Carlos Carrasco goes for the Indians (though in different games), to determine who will lead the AL Central going into the off-days. Full schedule with probable pitchers here.
