The Dodgers beat the Diamondbacks 9-5 yesterday, with Matt Kemp being a big reason for that with his three-run homer (and five RBI overall). That gives Kemp 25 homers on the year, to go along with his 27 stolen bases. That’s a 25-25 season, if you will, and no other player in the majors is even at 20-20. Reaching that level isn’t new for Kemp (he went 26-34 in 2009), but in what’s been a fantastic 2011 season (.313/.392/.579) he has an outside chance at being just the 5th player in history to go 40-40.
First, the stolen bases; Kemp has never swiped 40 in a season, but has hit 35 and 34. He’s not really running more this year than in years past on a per game basis (and he is getting on base more, so there are more opportunities), but his success rate is up to 90% (he was at 73% coming into this season). If he keeps running at this rate, he’ll have 15-16 more attempts. Since he needs 13 more steals to get to 40, that’s a success rate of 81-87%. Certainly doable, especially since if he’s close to 40-40 at the end of the end he might run a little more often.
The homers are a bit trickier. Kemp’s already only 3 away from his career high, and he actually needs to pick up the pace to get to 40. He’s gone deep about once every four games in 2011, which would give him 13-14 more this year. But he needs 15 more, and home runs are a little harder to control than trying to take second whenever you get on first. Given that Kemp’s already hitting the ball out at a higher than expected rate for him, it’s pushing it a little to think he could kick it up a notch. But it’s not a huge stretch, and I’d say there’s a decent chance of it – which would be pretty exciting in what has not been the best season for Dodgers’ fans.
Also last night: The Tigers beat up on the Angels (12-2); the Royals beat up on the Indians (12-0, with Melky Cabrera hitting a grand slam and Billy Butler going deep twice); the Rays beat up on the M’s (8-0, with Jeff Niemann K’ing 12); and much more.
What to watch tonight: Anibal Sanchez and Tim Hudson go head-to-head, as the Marlins have recovered from a terrible June to get to within two games of .500; couple of good young right-handers (Alex Cobb vs. Michael Pineda) face off in Seattle; and Ubaldo Jimenez makes perhaps his last start for the Rockies, against the 9-2 Aaraon Harang and the Padres. Full schedule with probable pitchers here.
