The Rangers moved Alexi Ogando from the bullpen to the starting rotation this year and – much like with CJ Wilson last season – the transition has gone quite well. The 27 year-old right-hander has had a very nice 2011, moving to 6-0 with his win over the Indians. Texas put 11 runs on the board, but most of them were in the later innings. Even for the time that it was a pitchers’ duel, Ogando was still outdoing Justin Masterson, and finished with 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K. How has Ogando managed to fit himself in between Jered Weaver and Dan Haren with the 3rd best ERA (2.20) in the AL this season?
First off, Ogando is walking fewer than 2 batters per nine – one of the league’s best marks and about a walk and a half better than he did out of the pen in ’10. His strike-out rate is a little below average at 6.5 K/9, but he’s missing a fair number of bats with his pitches; a mid-90s fastball, a slider with some good bite, and a change-up. Ogando has primarily utilized the first two pitches, but on the rare occasion that he’s thrown the change, batters have been somewhat confounded with it (missing over 40% of the time when they swing). It’s fairly likely that Ogando will start handing out more free passes sooner or later, but it seems there may be some room for growth with the K’s as well, which could counteract the associated negative effects.
Also, there’s been a bit of good fortune. Opposing hitters have a .208 batting average on balls in play, which is just unsustainable low. And he’s stranding a ton of runners. Once both of those thing regress his ERA will come up some – perhaps towards the mid 3s. That would still be a quite a fine result for Ogando and for the Rangers, and should be enough to keep them in first place in the AL West if everything else goes as planned.
Also last night: The Pirates come back and then beat the Phils in walk-off fashion; Ryan Braun, in the unfamiliar role of pinch-hitter, knocks a game-winner out of the park; Carl Pavano goes the distance in picking up his 100th career win; Jason Vargas also gets the complete game, as he shuts out the Rays; and much more.
What to watch tonight: Two of the AL’s best pitcher, Trevor Cahill and Josh Beckett, go head-to-head in Boston; battle of youngsters, as Jhoulys Chacin tries to get the Rockies a little closer in the West against Madison Bumgarner and the Giants; rookie Jeremy Hellickson tries to get the Rays back in the Win column versus the M’s, after three straight losses; Johny Cueto has been very good for the Reds since coming off the DL, and he’ll need to be on top of his game to beat Clayton Kershaw; and Kyle Loshe, Jair Jurrjens, and Yovani Gallardo all try to tie Kevin Correia (yes, Kevin Correia) for the MLB lead in wins (8). Full schedule with probable pitchers here.
