Every April a group of hitters start out the season crushing the ball. Invariably columns are written about why so-and-so has turned the corner or made an adjustment or whatnot, and yet many of these batter fall back down to earth. It’s early yet, but I thought I’d take a look at how the guys who began this year hot did in May*.
* Yeah, we’re over a week into June. Sue Me.
(1) Jose Bautista:
April: .366/.532/.780
May: .360/.476/.791
Dude’s ridiculous, but expecting anyone to walk in a quarter of their plate appearances as Bautista did in April is crazy. That went down to just 17% in May, but he just kept on crushing the ball.
(2) Ryan Braun:
April: .367/.457/.724
May: .260/.364/.433
10 home runs in the season’s first month; only 3 since.
(3) Lance Berkman:
April: .393/.455/.753
May: .262/.463/.415
What he lost in home runs and hits falling in, he (partially) made up for with walks. And a lot of them.
(4) Matt Holliday:
April: .408/.511/.618
May: .278/.352/.468
That’s what happens when your batting average on ball in play goes from .483 to .311.
(5) Joey Votto:
April: .372/.504/.628
May: .291/.425/.408
Ater hitting 37 home runs in 2010, Votto has just 8 this year – and 5 of them came in April.
(6) Matt Kemp:
April: .368/.446/.613
May: .253/.327/.495
BABIP went from 88 points above his career mark to 69 point below it. At least his “low” May walk rate of 8.8% is still above his seasonal career high.
(7) Miguel Cabrera:
April: .333/.454/.635
May: .286/.407/.473
His home run production fell by more than half as well, from 7 to 3.
(8) Prince Fielder:
April: .333/.421/.626
May: .243/.358/.447
His BABIP fell from .333 to .238, but he actually walked more while maintaining his home run production. June has seen as similar progression, except he already has 6 homers in 7 games.
(9) Brett Wallace:
April: .388/.458/.529
May: .250/.317/.402
I don’t think anyone expected Wallace to keep mashing given his .464 April BABIP. Sure enough, it fell to a more normal .299 in May and his production fell to a level not quite acceptable for a first-baseman.
(10) Andre Ethier:
April: .380/.446/.556
May: .261/.363/.352
.452 BABIP as he put together a 30 game hit streak. Then down to .304 as the streak ended and he became just a guy, more or less.
The simple average for all ten guys:
April: .371/.468/.646
May: .274/.385/.468
Huge drop across the board. And it’s even starker without Joey Bats (who it might not be fair to include with mere human ballplayers):
April: .371/.461/.631
May: .265/.375/.433
Still above average as a group (as you’d expect), but a near 300 point decrease in OPS made them much closer to league average batters than the mashers they were in April. It’s almost as if the best hitters in April were largely benefiting from some good fortune (usually a high BABIP, though also occasionally a burst of home runs), and then when things started to even out they become your run of the mill good hitters.
