I’m about this close to disliking Zack Wheeler, and it has nothing to do with him. Coming into the 2009 draft, the Georgia native was my favorite prospect for the Braves’ pick, and it made a lot of sense. He was a hard-throwing high school product that the Braves usually liked, and he was from Georgia. The Giants, however, made him their selection with the pick right before the Braves, and he was whisked away to San Francisco. Fast forward to the present, I really hoped the Braves would add Carlos Beltran, but when the Giants swept in to offer Wheeler, I knew the Braves wouldn’t be offering a better package. Everything associated with Wheeler has led to my disappointment, but that doesn’t mean he’s not an excellent prospect.
Wheeler makes an excellent first impression. Standing 6-3 and 180 pounds, Wheeler is pretty much the prototypical size for a pitcher, and he has plenty of room to fill out. The nice thing about Wheeler is that he doesn’t necessarily need to. Already throwing in the mid-90s, his fastball is a special pitch with both velocity and enough sink for a groundball to flyball ratio over 2 (average is about 1.25). But Wheeler has his weaknesses. His curveball flashes plus, but it isn’t consistent in regard to movement or location. And his change-up is below-average. At age 21, he still has time to get more repetitions and sharpen those pitches. Wheeler’s other issue is his command and control. With a strikeout rate over 10 per 9 innings, Wheeler certainly has good stuff, but his walk rate is 5 per 9 innings this season and was 6 per 9 last season. For those keeping track at home, that’s not good at all. Wheeler needs to cut down drastically on those walks if he wants to approach his ace ceiling.
How possible is it for him to reach that ceiling? What Wheeler needs is repetitions, and he has plenty of time to get those. The Mets’ player development system, however, hasn’t been as good as the Giants’ in recent seasons. The Giants have produced Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner, and the Mets have produced … well, not much of serious consequence. One, however, shouldn’t hold that too much against the new regime. Sandy Alderson and Co. have only been in control for less than a season, and while injuries to Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia have occurred this season, those may not necessarily be Alderson and Co.’s fault.
What we do know is that Wheeler has big potential and a long way to go to get there. His fastball and curveball show enough promise to project good things for him, but some bad arm action and a lack of innings (not quite 150 innings total in the minors, yet) have cut into the development of his control and command. The Mets did very well acquiring him and adding him to their farm system by eating most of Beltran’s salary, but now they need to protect and develop that investment.
