Top prospects don’t always stay with their original teams. With the trade deadline “around the corner” (sorry, couldn’t help it), top prospects are also used to net stars from other teams. It’s not that the teams don’t want them anymore. It’s just that getting now production is more valuable than possible future production, and it’s actually an honor to be the “center piece” of a big trade. Last July, Tyler Skaggs was that player as the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Dan Haren to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
Skaggs was drafted 41st overall by the Angels in the 2009 draft, but the Diamondbacks, who had the 42nd pick, had hoped to take him with the very next pick. The Angels, however, snatched him up and placed him in Rookie ball late in 2009 as a 17-year old. They moved him up to Low-A Cedar Rapids, and he thrived with a 9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. After the Haren trade, the D-Backs put him back in Low-A where he did ever better for them, striking out 11 per 9 while walking the same amount of hitters. Skaggs was obviously promoted to High-A to start 2011, and he performed very well, still striking out 11 per 9 though walking 3 per 9 now. His impressive performance led to a mid-season promotion to AA.
Coming into the season, Skaggs was near the top of everyone’s D-Backs lists, but part of that was because of the dearth of high-upside prospects in the organization. While he was number 2 coming into this season, he may actually slide down the list even though he’s done everything right this season. Adding Archie Bradley and Trevor Bauer, along with a few other notable draft picks, tends to do that. The D-Backs organization will see an uptick in talent in their farm system, so while Skaggs may line up behind Jarrod Parker, Trevor Bauer, and Archie Bradley in the next rankings, no one is saying Skaggs is bad or worse than last season.
They can’t say that because he’s not worse. After sitting in the 88-91 range with his fastball, Skaggs now sits near 90-93, and while that isn’t a big fastball, his 6’4”, 195 lb. frame indicates that this should happen and might even tick up a bit further. If it does, it will make his 12-6 curveball and change-up that much better. Skaggs can already throw those pitches well for someone his age, and they should continue to develop as he fills out and gains more repetitions. Even better, his walk rates indicate the ability to throw strikes, though his command within the zone needs work as you might expect, and the career K rate over 10 indicates that he can definitely miss bats. As he moves up to AA, Skaggs will see his first real test as this is the level where prospects really begin to differentiate themselves.
Moving forward, Skaggs isn’t blocked. Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy will probably be there for a long time, but it takes more than that to block a starting pitcher. Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter are decent additions to a staff but, Saunders especially, won’t stop Skaggs from getting there. In other words, the only worries are his development. The move to AA was an unexpected one as he was expected to move slowly, but I don’t expect another jump. If he performs well for the next month, he’ll probably start 2012 in AA anyway with a chance to go to AAA. The projected timetable looks like the start of 2013 and in combination with Bauer’s arrival (Arizona hopes), but Skaggs could see the majors in 2012 if needs and performance dictate.
