The Astros are currently 33-65, sitting in the seller of the NL Central 19 games out of first. They’re clearly out of the race this season and need to start looking to 2012 and beyond when the new ownership group takes over. What the Astros do have is some nice youth in the rotation in the duo of Bud Norris and Jordan Lyles. Lyles has yet to win a game this season and has had plenty of ups and downs, resulting in a 4.55 ERA, but he’s only 20 years old and has showed very good control (2.8 BB/9) to go along with a K/9 that is just a hair below league average. He should improve as his game matures at the big-league level.
With a rotation of Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris, Brett Myers, J.A. Happ and Jordan Lyles, the Astros seem to have a chance to compete in the unstable NL Central next season, but it would take big turnaround seasons from Myers and Happ for that to come to fruition. What the Astros have outside of the rotation, aside from a few good young players, is either unproductive, getting old or getting expensive — or a combination of all three. Hunter Pence is part of the “getting expensive” group.
Pence is making $6.9M this season and is heading into his third year of arbitration this offseason. It is almost certain that his contract will cross the $10M mark for 2012. Another outfielder, Michael Bourn, is also heading into his third year or arbitration and will see a significant raise from the $4.4M he’s making this season. With the raise in pay for those two, plus the absurd $19M Carlos Lee will make in 2012, the Astros could be looking at an outfield costing $35-40M.
As it stands, without arbitration numbers figured in, the Astros have $47.25M on the books for 2012, which is about $30M less than their 2011 payroll. Add in the arbitration numbers and there won’t be much money to play with in the offseason unless the new ownership decides to raise payroll significantly.
One of the biggest problems facing the Astros right now is the lack of upper-echelon talent in their farm system. There is definitely upside in some of the younger position players, but players like Delino Deshields Jr. and Jonathan Villar are struggling to bring that upside to life so far this season. That being said, one player that looks ready for his big-league test is 23-year-old outfielder J.D. Martinez. Martinez is hitting .341/.419/.545 with 11 home runs in 329 plate appearances at double-A Corpus Christi with a 40/48 BB/K rate. If Pence were to be dealt, Martinez would likely get his chance with the big club.
Quite simply, the Astros need to build up their farm system. While they have young position players already at the big league level like Brett Wallace, Jose Altuve and Jason Castro — who has been on the DL all season due to a torn ACL in his right knee — there isn’t much else on the way right now. That could be helped a bit if they can manage to sign first round pick George Springer, but an even quicker way to build up the farm system would be to trade away their most productive and most attractive players such as Pence.
Pence is having another fine year, hitting .315/.356/.478 with 11 home runs, seven steals and 61 RBI. However, he has a track record that suggests, while he’s a very good player, he’s not someone who’s going to carry a franchise.
In 2009, Pence posted 4.1 wins above replacement (WAR as calculated by Fan Graphs), which is his highest fWAR to-date. That season he hit .282/.346/.472 with 25 home runs and 14 stolen bases. According to ultimate zone rating (UZR) his defense that season was great, as he posted a well aobve average UZR of 12. According to that same stat, Pence’s defense has dropped off significantly over the last couple of years.
Let’s just say that at age 28, Pence has a few more seasons ahead of him in which he can improve slightly before hitting a plateau. What’s his peak value? Maybe 5 WAR? That’s nothing to sneeze at, that’s an all-star, but it’s certainly not a cornerstone player like a Joey Votto or Matt Holiday. There is also no guarantee that Pence will actually improve as he heads toward his 30’s.
If there’s one aspect of Hunter Pence’s offensive game that’s risky, it’s his plate discipline. Pence’s career walk rate is 6.7 percent and his career chase rate is over 30 percent, both numbers are worse than the league average. It’s not even as though he’s a great contact hitter either, as his career whiff rate is 22.4 percent. There is also the risk that his power numbers have already peaked. For three consecutive seasons, from 2008 to 2010, Pence hit 25 home runs on the nose each year. He’ll have to hit 14 more home runs this season to match that mark. Unlike most power hitters, Pence is predominantly a ground-ball machine, holding a career ground-ball rate of almost 52 percent. His HR/FB rate has dropped to 12 percent this season from a career average that was over 15 percent. As a result, his double rate is up, but his home run rate is down.
The key to any deal in baseball is, of course, what a team gets in return. It doesn’t make sense to simply hand Pence over for a couple of mid-level prospects, but if the Astros could score two or more top-end prospects in return, they’d have to consider making the deal. Two prospects that could potentially be 4-plus WAR players at their peak would mean two Hunter Pence’s for the price of one down the line. Of course, their is always risk in any prospect, but the reward could be a double plus in terms of on the field production and off the field payroll flexibility.
After the 2012 season, the Astros will finally rid themselves of the contracts of Carlos Lee and Brett Myers — assuming Myers still sucks next season and his 2013 option won’t vest based on performance. If they move the salaries of players like Pence and Michael Bourn, they’ll have a ton of money to spend, even if they keep Wandy Rodriguez around for the final year of his deal. Below is a list of players scheduled to become free agents at the end of the 2012 season…
Matt Kemp
Josh Hamilton
B.J. Upton
Shane Victorino
Andre Ethier
Carlos Quentin
Matt Cain
Zack Greinke
Cole Hamels
Shaun Marcum
Jonathan Sanchez
Jered Weaver
Mike Adams
Brandon League
To name a few.
If the Astros can use their core of young players as a base, especially the young starters Bud Norris and Jordan Lyles, they’ll have the payroll flexibility to make a big free agent splash and add the finishing piece(s) of a serious playoff contender by 2013.
Again, it’s all about what type of return another team is willing to give to get the services of a somewhat expensive Hunter Pence through 2013. If the Astros got the offer that they’re looking for, they would be absolutely right to trade away one of their most popular players.
All contract info from Cot’s Contracts
Stats from Fan Graphs and Baseball Reference
