Asdrubal Cabrera’s Interesting Start

Here at the Outside Corner, we’ve talked about Asdrubal Cabrera a little bit already. That article was written two weeks into the season. Here we are now on May 28th, and we’re two months into the season, and guess what? Cabrera is still having himself an All-Star caliber season. Cabrera was also mentioned in this article by Garrett Wilson, and right now, that prediction by Garrett of Cabrera being this year’s Jose Bautista is quite apt. I’m not saying Cabrera is going to hit 54 homers this season, but he IS showing a power stroke that he’s never shown over his career. Let’s examine things a little bit.

This season, Cabrera has ten homers in 220 plate appearances. Prior to this season, he had 18 in 1610 plate appearances. So that’s him going from a rate of one homer every 89 plate apperances, to one homer every 22 plate appearances. He’s hitting homers four times more often this season. Compare that to Bautista, who went from 59 homers in 2038 plate appearances prior to 2010 (one every 34 plate appearances) to 73 in 880 plate appearances since the beginning of 2010 (one every 12 plate appearances, an extraordinary ratio). Bautista’s homer ratio increased less than three times in comparison to Cabrera’s four times, but that’s not saying that Cabrera is more impressive than Bautista; we’re dealing with a two month sample for Cabrera, and a full season and two month sample for Bautista. There’s plenty of time for Cabrera to regress to a more natural rate.

What has Cabrera done to start hitting more homers? Comparing Cabrera’s 2010 season (which was awful, with him posting a .676 OPS in 425 plate appearances) to his 2011 season (which has seen him put up a .894 OPS so far) yields little results. His strikeout and walk rates are nearly identical, and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is actually two points lower in 2011 than in 2010, but that’s not a significant change. Looking at Cabrera’s swing patterns, nothing is drastically different. He hasn’t changed his approach to swing more or less, or at better or worse pitches. He’s nearly the same player as he was last season as this year, minus the injuries.

So, what the hell is going on here? The major difference isn’t what Cabrera’s swinging at, it’s what is happening when he makes contact. Cabrera’s line drive rate this season is the lowest of his career, which isn’t a good sign for players who want to be productive at the plate. The major difference is that over the past two seasons, Cabrera has been beating the ball into the ground to make use of his speed. This year, those ground balls have turned into fly balls, and they’re leaving the park at a rate that’s the highest of his career and one of the higher marks in the league. He’s also not popping the ball up nearly as much, which is pretty much as guaranteed of an out as you can have in baseball. 

Can Cabrera keep his hot start up? I wouldn’t say that he’ll have 30 homers as a lock, but 20 is looking pretty good right now. His HR/FB rate isn’t absurdly high, and could be sustainable over a full year. If he reverts to his prior form and starts hitting the ball into the ground again, well, his value pretty much falls back down again. But if Cabrera can keep hitting the ball in the air, he’s definitely capable of staying in this form for the surprising Indians.

About Joe Lucia

I hate your favorite team. I also sort of hate most of my favorite teams.

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