Unlike the National League, where the Philadelphia Phillies are the clear favorites to march on to yet another World Series, the American League sees five teams, all with their own appeals, in the mix to win a shot at a World Series berth. Let’s take a look at what each of the five teams bring, and see who should be there in the end:
Texas Rangers – As usual for the defending AL champs, the bandbox in Arlington has lent itself to a team that is bursting at the seams offensively, rating third in non-pitcher WAR in all of baseball, averaging 5.12 per game and leading the Majors in baserunning efficency. They also strike out only 15.2% of the time, the lowest rate of the five teams that will be covered in this feature. They are led by one of the best offensive second baseman in baseball in Ian Kinsler (6.0 WAR), twice cast-off catcher Mike Napoli (4.1), and free agent pick-up Adrian Beltre (3.8), with utilityman Michael Young (3.6), shortstop Elvis Andrus (3.6) and outfielder Josh Hamilton (3.0) all contributing as well.
Whereas the pitching last year was a huge reason why the Rangers ended up getting so far in the postseason, this year, it hasn’t been nearly as good. Obviously, the loss of Cliff Lee makes it hard to duplicate success, but some of the main cogs from last year haven’t stepped up, as well. C.J. Wilson (4.8 WAR) is the ace of the staff now and is on his way to a big contract this offseason, but he is the only guy peforming at a high-end level. Matt Harrison (3.3) and Derek Holland (3.0) have been good cogs behind Wilson, but are performing closer to average than anything else. Alexi Ogando’s (2.9) hot start has been significantly cooled thanks to a career-high 155 innings pitched, while Colby Lewis (1.4) has bounced back to earth after a breakout 2010. Possibly more troubling than the Rangers starting rotation is the rate at which they give up the home run, with a 10.7% HR/FB rate, tied for fifth most in all of baseball, and the fact that their bullpen’s best pitcher right now is 40-year-old Darren Oliver. Neftali Feliz hasn’t been as dominant as Texas has wanted, and it necessitated them going out and getting Mike Adams from San Diego and Koji Uehara from Baltimore to strengthen the backend. Adams has been striking out more than a batter per inning, but his home run rate is up and an unbelievable 98% strand rate can’t stand for too long.
What might be a good thing for Texas going forward is that they are all going to be very healthy heading into the playoffs. The offense should be top notch, but the pitching is suspect. Wilson is the only guy that makes opposing offenses take pause, whereas Harrison and Holland pitch more to contact, which can make for a dangerous proposition when playing a top flight offense like Boston or New York. Holland is a wild card for Texas. He has four shutouts this year, with Cliff Lee being the only pitcher in baseball having more, and if he can have a performance in the playoffs more along those lines than the league-average end of things, him and Wilson could form a nice 1-2 punch that a team would not like to see four times in a series. However, if the starting pitching can’t step up after Wilson, Texas and that offense is going to have to pony up a lot of runs to keep up with their high-scoring opponents.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Once again, the other Los Angeles team that doesn’t actually reside in Los Angeles is playing above their heads a bit in accordance with their expected Win-Loss record, which stands at 75-68 for the 78-65 Angels. It mainly has to do with their 26 wins in 1-run contests (although they’ve lost 26 as well), most in the American League. Offensively, they are about league average, sitting at 20.1 WAR, 14th most in baseball. Their on-base percentage sits in the lower third of the league (tied for 23rd at .311), mostly due to their fifth-lowest walk rate in baseball at 7.4%. They have enjoyed breakout seasons from Howie Kendrick (5.2 WAR) and Peter Bourjos (4.1), but haven’t gotten much else other than league-average production or lower from others, although the arrival of top prospect Mike Trout has indeed put a jolt in the offense in recent times. Remember, this is a team that traded Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells, basically, and (surprise, surprise) it hasn’t exactly turned out that well.
However, if you want to see why the Angels are still in the race with a middling offense, look no further than the top three pitchers in their rotation. Dan Haren (5.7) and Jered Weaver (5.6) have been anchors from start to finish while no-hit throwing Ervin Santana (3.6) has turned it on in the second half to complete a dangerous threesome. In fact, of the five teams in this piece, there’s little doubt who has the best 1-2-3 punch in their respective starting rotation. They’ve also got a good closer in the emerging Jordan Walden (10.02 K/9 IP, 2.34 FIP, 29 saves) and have had a good season by Scott Downs, although his 1.37 ERA is a mirage (.209 BABIP, 87.9% strand rate, 3.39 FIP). The bullpen as a whole is a bit shaky and they haven’t done much to quell the fears of a team so dependant on its starting pitching that they could save them in close games.
This team reminds many of the San Francisco Giants in some aspects, mainly due to their top three starters and a less than enthralling offensive attack, but if there’s one thing that the Giants proved last year, it was that if you have a strong starting pitching staff, you can eek out the close victories in the playoffs, and with a little offensive luck, you can be that much more dangerous. They still have to climb ahead of the Rangers in the standings, but if the Angels make a run and get to the playoffs, you can bet that nobody wants to face that starting rotation in a five game series, especially if Haren and Weaver decide to go on short rest. Their biggest challenge lies within the confines of the season as opposed to after it.
Detroit Tigers – This is the part where I write 500 words on Justin Verlander, right?
Obviously, the Tigers feature the single biggest weapon in the AL pennant race. Verlander can pitch twice in a five game series, three times in a seven game series and can basically be counted on to be wipeout fantastic in each start. He’s the runaway American League Cy Young winner and is the most dominant pitcher in all of baseball, and the numbers speak for themselves. Unfortunately for the flamethrower, his help behind him isn’t what he’d like it to be. Max Scherzer (2.3 WAR) and Rick Porcello (2.0) have been league-average and inconsistent, and outside of the fantasticly-named Al Alberquerque (14.1 K/9 IP, 0 HRs given up in 37 2/3 IP, but an ugly 6.93 BB/9 IP rate) the bullpen has been average at best. However, the Tigers ace in the hole might be the emergence of recent arrival Doug Fister, who has pitched to a 2.68 FIP in his seven starts since coming from Seattle. The Tigers would be wise to slot him in behind Verlander in their postseason rotation, leaving Scherzer to match up with a #3 and taking advantage of Fister’s hot streak.
Offensively, Miguel Cabrera (5.5 WAR, .332/.434./.562, 169 wRC+, higher walk rate than strikeout rate) has been an MVP-caliber player worth the monstrous contract he was given. But the real surprise has been the arrival of Alex Avila (5.1) as an All-Star caliber catcher, something that the Tigers were hoping for even with the arrival of Victor Martinez (2.3 in a mostly-DH role, with a superb .326/.374/.461 line) via free agency. Perhaps even more surprising than that was that Jhonny Peralta (4.6 WAR) let his strong post-trade arrival in 2010 stand out this season, as well, having his best year ever and his strongest since his first full year in Cleveland in 2005.
Placing the Tigers amongst the five here is interesting. Verlander should be counted on to win each time he starts, but at the same time, both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee were beaten twice last year in the playoffs by the Giants of all teams. However, this is a starting rotation that has a chance, like Texas, to be good if Fister stays hot and Scherzer develops his sometimes dominant stuff into a good start or two that the Tigers could have enough to get past the Wild Card round. But if all things fall into place and the chance of Verlander vs. Halladay or Lee x3 happens in the World Series? All bets are off.
Boston Red Sox – Like many other great Red Sox teams, the Bostonians are led by a fantastic offense. This year’s blend includes the best outfielder in all of baseball this year in Jacoby Ellsbury (8.1 WAR), the best second baseman in baseball in Dustin Pedroia (7.0) and professional Green Monster pounder Adrian Gonzalez (6.1) as a trio unmatched in all of baseball. They have also gotten a great year from Big Papi (4.5), another solid season from the Greek God of Walks (4.2) and step-up seasons from Salty (2.8) and rookie sensation Josh Reddick (2.2). This is all coming while Carl Crawford (0.5) stands by as an innocent bystander who happens to make the most money on the entire team.
On the mound, Boston has gotten a bounceback year from Josh Beckett (4.1), but not the best year from Jon Lester (3.5 WAR). After that, the next two best pitchers by WAR for the Red Sox is closer Jonathan Papelbon (2.2 with 12.13 K/9 IP and a downright nasty 1.73 FIP) and setup man Daniel Bard (1.7 with 9.37 K/9 IP and a 2.85 FIP). This doesn’t bode well for a postseason rotation that is missing the injured Clay Buchholz and whatever is left of John Lackey (1 WAR each). Erik Bedard has done his best Doug Fister impression since coming over at the deadline (3.05 FIP in six starts while striking out a batter an inning and limiting the long ball) and might slide Lackey out of the postseason rotation.
However, the one thing the Red Sox hold over the other four teams on this list is two dominant pitchers that shut down a game with the lead in the last two innings. Yes, the Yankees have The Great Mariano, but Bard would be closing on any other team in baseball, and by many accounts, should have this year had it not been for Papelbon finding his ways once more as a dominant closer. Bottom line: If you are down in the eighth inning to the Red Sox, you better pray to the baseball gods that Boston’s dynamic duo doesn’t have even their B- stuff that night.
New York Yankees – Whereas the other four teams might be topheavy in offensive production, the Yankees offer a lineup that has seven players with 3 WAR or better, including an MVP-caliber performance by Curtis Granderson (6.8). They’ve also gotten Brett Gardner’s best year (5 WAR, mostly thanks to a fantastic defensive performance in left field), the normal greatness at the keystone from Robinson Cano (4.8) and great years again from Nick Swisher (4.3), A-Rod (4.2) and Tex (4.2). Low-risk signing Russell Martin (3.0) has paid off for a team that has had their share of catching troubles, and even The Captain (2.5) hasn’t been completely statuesque this season, even though (once again) his defense is less than average.
Once again, C.C. Sabathia (6.7) has had a Cy Young caliber season, but once again, will probably miss out on the award. No matter, as he has proven himself worthy of the contract he has earned in his three years in pinstripes, and will be worth the next contract he signs if he opts out this year, as expected. But after that? Well, unless you believe that Bartolo Colon (2.7) and Freddy Garcia (2.3) can actually pitch well in the playoffs nearly a decade after they were last useful in a postseason, I’m not sure the Yankees have much of a leg to stand on. Sure, Ivan Nova (2.1 WAR) has been a nice story as a rookie, but he’s more of a 4th/5th starter in the end, and expecting him to be a major contributor in his rookie season could be just as tough a sell. That being said, the Yankees have the best bullpen out of the five teams on this list overall, with Mariano (2.29 FIP, 1.15 BB/9 IP, best cutter ever) leading the way, as always. David Robertson (2.4 WAR, 13.73 K/9 IP, 1.79 FIP) and Boone Logan (10.22 K/9 IP) have been great cogs in the bridge to Mariano, and will be key pieces for the Yankees to be successful in the postseason.
The Yankees have the most balance from top to bottom offensively and have enough in the bullpen to stretch out a game should one of their non-C.C. starters get bounced early. They have a good shot every game out because so many different players can step up and contribute should others have a bad night. This bodes well for a long, sustained playoff run, and might very well see them in the World Series again.
So Who’s The Favorite?
In the end, it looks like even though they do not have much behind their ace, the Yankees are the favorites to win the American League and get to a World Series. They have a strong ace like Verlander (although he isn’t as dominant), they have the most balanced offense top to bottom of the contenders, and don’t make too many mistakes defenisvely, even with diminshed range all across the board. If they can split the non-C.C. starts, the Yankees should be there in the end, probably taking down the Red Sox in the ALCS.
