As we look ahead to the start of the second half of the MLB season today… well, at least the portion played after the All-Star break, we’re going to examine players and teams that will be risers and fallers in the second half of the season. April, May, and June brought us several good and bad surprises on the individual and team front, so we asked The OC guys for one player and one team who will come strong and fade away as we head for October. We also borrowed the balls and strikes counter from Seattle for this week’s roundtable.
Strike 1: Which player will rise in the second half and become an impact player in a pennant race?
Ben Duronio: That’s a tough call. I think Carlos Beltran ends up getting traded to a contender and being an integral part of their offense once he is acquired, similar to what he did in 2005 with the Astros. While he is not on a contender, I think Beltran steps up big for whichever team he is acquired by.
Mark Smith: Can I say Dan Uggla? Or is it just that I want to believe that it will happen?
Matt Lindner: Zack Greinke. Greinke is way too good to be as mediocre as he’s been this season. His record (7-3) is good but his ERA is God-freaking-awful and isn’t why the Brewers gave up so much to get him in the first place. Watch for him to step up and be a key figure down the stretch in leading the Crew to their first-ever NL Central title.
Garrett Wilson: Considering how poorly he started the season, I think Vernon Wells could be a dark horse candidate to play a big role in the playoff push for the Angels. He really started heating up the last few weeks, giving the Halos the power bat they badly need in the middle of their otherwise weak lineup and, not so coincidentally, the Angels have taken off. If he can keep up his power surge, he could well propel the Angels past the Rangers and into the post-season.
Joe Lucia: Dan Uggla. The Braves offense has been pretty putrid all season, and Uggla has been a main reason why. Since July started, Uggla has been a house of fire for the Braves, and if he continues to produce, the team should get back into sync and coast into the playoffs.
Strike 2: Which player will see a precipitous drop in form for the second half?
Garrett: I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Matt Kemp will have a disappointing second half. I don’t think he is going to stink up the joint or anything, but I feel like he is going to start mailing it once August rolls around and the Dodgers officially raise the white flag on the season and become totally overwhelmed by the McCourt mess.
Matt: Paul Konerko. One of these days, Paulie is going to realize that he’s old and pitchers are going to realize that Adam Dunn is better as a source of environmentally friendly electricity (a windmill joke, get it?) than he is as a force at the plate.
Joe: Jair Jurrjens. I’m being Braves-centric today, but Jurrjens has a pitifully low strikeout rate, and that’s not going to keep his ERA under 2.00 for much longer. It could be argued that he hasn’t even been the best pitcher on the staff so far this season, and I think that as the second half progresses, that will be magnified.
Ben: Jair Jurrjens. He’s been great so far, but not sub-2.00 ERA great. I am a Braves blogger, and I don’t think there’s a bigger case for someone expected to come back down to Earth a bit. He has a 19/14 K/BB ratio over his past five starts, which includes an eight strikeout, one walk performance. He will still likely be a solid pitcher, but he probably will not end up in Cy Young contention.
Mark: For hitters, just take a look at the BABiP leaderboards. Anyone over .350 is likely to see a worse second half. It may not be an awful second half, but getting back to career norms for those games would be a drop in production for every one of those players. On the mound, I love young guns like Michael Pineda, but I wonder if those guys can keep it up throughout a long second half when their previous career-highs in innings pitched is around 140 innings.
Strike 3: Which team will surprise in the second half?
Joe: The Chicago White Sox. They’ve actually gotten some pretty good pitching this year, it’s just the offense that has been pathetic. I don’t think Adam Dunn and Alex Rios will continue to struggle to the extent that they have this year, and with the great seasons from Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin so far, the Sox should be able to put up a fight in the AL Central.
Garrett: How about the Diamondbacks? They keep hanging around in the NL West and I suspect they are plan to be buyers at the trade deadline. If they can add a quality starting pitcher and a reliable first baseman, they can keep nipping at the Giants heels the rest of the way and maybe even take them out.
Mark: I’m going to take the Brewers. I realize they are currently tied for the NL Central lead, but with a healthy team and several of their players playing well, I think they’ll put some distance between themselves and St. Louis, who might see a decrease in production from guys like Lance Berkman and Kyle Lohse.
Matt: My former employer, the Brewers. Bernie Brewer’s going to be getting blisters on his butt from all the sliding he’s going to be doing in the second half. If and when that highly touted rotation gets going (and don’t be surprised to see them add another starter down the stretch) this is going to be an even more fun team to watch.
Ben: The Rays. They were my pick to win the A.L. East and I still think they will. If they can close the gap a bit before the deadline and avoid selling portions of their team, they should be able to stay in contention and compete in the game’s toughest division. Evan Longoria needs to have a great second half and Matt Joyce needs to hit like he did in April and May rather than how he did in June for them to have a legitimate shot.
Strike 4: Which team will fade from contention down the stretch?
Matt: The Cardinals. Just not enough there to keep up with the Pirates or the Brewers. Yes I just typed that sentence, no never in my life did I think I would.
Ben: The Pirates. It has been a fun ride, but I think they are bound to flame out just like the Padres did last year. I like certain aspects of the Pirates team a lot, but their starting pitching still does not do it for me.
Joe: The San Francisco Giants. Even with a healthy Pablo Sandoval, their offense is bad. Real bad. Losing Buster Posey for the year absolutely killed their mojo, and I don’t think the pitching will be able to keep their heads above water in the second half. The Giants are one team that absolutely, positively needs to make a trade for a bat this month. If they don’t, I don’t think they even make the playoffs in their quest to repeat at World Champs.
Mark: I’ll agree with Ben. I get this feeling that the whole country, except for the fans of other NL Central teams, are really rooting for the Pirates to make a run, but I don’t see it happening. They don’t need to mortgage the farm for a better chance against superior opponents, and they don’t have what it currently takes to overtake the Brewers or Cardinals or Reds. You might as well throw in Cleveland and Arizona into the same pot, though I think Arizona has the best chance of the three.
Garrett: I hate to say it, but the feel good story of the Cleveland Indians is going to come to an end. I never really believed in them all that much to begin with, but now that they are through with what was a cushy first-half schedule, they are destined to plummet back down to the depths we though they belonged in before the season.
