Each week, our braintrust of bloggers will come together to give their best judgment calls on three of the most important baseball topics from the past week in the 3 Strikes Roundtable. This week on the docket is the Indians and their impressive start, Andre Ethier’s newsworthy (or not) hit streak, and our guys will predict which team will rise and fall from their current perch in the standings. Time to ring ’em up!
Strike 1: The Indians are shocking the baseball world with the best record in the league. Is there any way they can keep this up?
Daniel Moroz: Of course it’s possible that the Indians can keep it up, but it’s not that likely. While the offense will slow down a little, they should still be capable of putting runs on the board. On the run prevention side though, I can’t see a staff led by Justin Masterson (who I like, but isn’t exactly a Cy Young candidate) getting through the year with an ERA around 3.50. But if the team muddle along around .500 from here on out, that might still be enough to get them a division title given their hot start.
Mark Smith: Will they be 18-8 every month? Nah. They beat up on the worst AL West teams, teams in the AL Central, and Boston when it was down. Luckily, they’ll keep facing the AL Central teams pretty often, and they way they’re playing, the Indians might win this division. But I don’t expect that. The Twins and White Sox are better than this, and I expect them to start playing like it this month. As for the Indians themselves, they’ve had a lot of fast starts offensively (Hafner, Sizemore, Brantley, LaPorta, Cabrera) and should slow down some, but Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo should pick up some of that slack and keep this as an upper-level offense. On the mound, their starters have actually been pretty good with FIPs (Fielding Independent Pitching) in the mid-3s for 3 starters, but they have precious little depth for injuries. The bullpen looks okay, but they’ve allowed only 4 home runs, which just isn’t going to continue. This team isn’t great, and they aren’t “this” good. But that division isn’t good, either, and a few positive bounces could knock them into the playoffs. I just wouldn’t bet on it.
Joe Lucia: Their schedule turns to absolute hell over the next two months, so it’s going to be tough for Cleveland to stay on top. But stranger things have happened. If the pitching continues to pitch adequately, the offense will be able to produce more than enough runs for the Tribe to survive. Look for big contributions from Grady Sizemore and Matt LaPorta as the season goes on.
Pat Lackey: Will the Indians finish with the best record in baseball? No, I don’t think they will. Will they contend for the AL Central? There’s definitely a good chance of it. That’s more about the weaknesses of the other teams in the division (the Twins have some old players and some holes and if Joe Mauer can’t hurry back, they might be in trouble, the White Sox are starting black holes like Juan Pierre and Alex Rios, the Tigers’ pitching staff is struggling, etc. etc.) than the strength of the Indians, but I think at this point in time we can say that they have a fairly strong offense assuming guys like Hafner and Sizemore can stay healthy. That leaves a lot on a pitching staff that’s awfully thin, but they’ve got a nice head start and I don’t know if this division will run away from them.
Ben Duronio: I think they can continue to play at a relatively high level. Their best two hitters, Shin Soo Choo and Carlos Santana are still looking to get it going offensively, which should mitigate the expected regression from guys like Jack Hannahan and Travis Hafner. Their pitching is in a similar situation. Josh Tomlin probably will not receive the type of results he has had all season, as evident by his .179 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), but Fausto Carmona should be able to get his ERA down to keep their rotation performing at a similar level. Masterson is a very good pitcher and if he can keep his walks down as he has all season, there’s no reason for him not to succeed. Pitchers who induce a ton of ground balls can be frustrating at times, but if they can induce as many as Masterson has over the past two years, they are usually rather effective.
Garrett Wilson: It is fun to root for the underdogs, but I just don’t think they’ve got enough to do it all season long. Their rotation after Masterson and Carmona just doesn’t have the talent one normally expects from a division winner. What’s funny though is that if Cleveland just comes back to earth and plays .500 ball the rest of the year, which is far more realistic, they could still win the division since the supposed AL Central contenders have all been major disappointments…
Strike 2: Should we start caring about Andre Ethier’s hit streak? What number does the streak have to reach to become a big story?
Pat: I think that the streak becomes a big story at 30. I don’t remember exactly where I saw this, but I know someone posted on Twitter last night the number of 30 game hit streaks since 1900 vs. the number of no-hitters and the number of 30+ game hitting streaks is much smaller (the number of hitting streaks longer than 30 is 53 without Ethier, the number of no-hitters is over 200). If he gets to 40, that’s a huge deal. Only six people have ever gotten that far before and no one’s done it since Pete Rose in 1978.
Ben: I think it can be a big story if it gets to upwards of 35 games. Andre Ethier is a great talent, and along with Matt Kemp they are one of the more underrated one-two punches in all of baseball. I would bet a lot of money against him coming close to DiMaggio’s record, but this type of hitting streak is definitely something fun to follow while it lasts.
Joe: Well, he’s at 29 after Tuesday. Give him another week, and he’ll be in the mid-30s, which is when things begin to get real interesting. 30 is just a nice round number that signifies one straight month of pure hitting. Get me there, and then I’ll really start to get my brain going.
Daniel: I may start caring once he gets over 40 games – very likely once he gets over 50 (when he starts to have a decent chance at the record) – but until that point it’s a fun thing to note but not a big deal. And it’s not like Ethier getting a hit every game has done wonders for the Dodgers offense.
Garrett: My default number for caring is 30 if only because it is a nice round number. I don’t think anyone will ever beat the hit streak record, but a 30-game streak is still awfully impressive. That being said, I think we all should make a big deal out of Ethier’s streak if only because it gives us something positive to say about the Dodgers and they could really use a little positive press right now.
Mark: I think it becomes a decent story at 30, but if he approaches 40, it will get ESPN’s seal of approval, or “Live, Breaking Coverage”. Should we care? Sure. It’s a pretty hefty record, and it indicates an impressive run on hitting. It would be quite the accomplishment and lavish some attention on baseball. But if we start calling Ethier the greatest hitter ever, then we’ve gone too far. Appreciate the moment, but let’s not get too crazy.
Strike 3: Which May 1 playoff team has the best chance of falling, and which May 1 cellar dweller has the best chance to make a recovery?
Garrett: I must once again return to the AL Central for the answer to both of those questions. Even though Cleveland is kind of running away with the division right now, I still think that whole division is wide open. The Indians will come back to earth at some point and despite all the turmoil, the White Sox have plenty of time left to right the ship. Obviously Boston, who was in last on May 1st, still has a very good shot at winning the division or at least snagging the Wild Card based on sheer talent alone.
Joe: In the pretenders division, I think the Marlins are going to fall hard and fast. They’re trotting out a lineup featuring Scott Cousins and Emilio Bonifacio, neither of whom have ever been positive contributors in the majors on a daily basis. As for the teams dragging along, I think the obvious answer for a rebound is Minnesota. Everything that could go wrong for the Twins has, and they’re just too good of a team to keep playing as badly as they have so far. Once Joe Mauer gets healthy and Justin Morneau gets his groove back, they’ll be dangerous.
Mark: Did you know the Royals are currently tied for the Wild Card lead? Yeah, that won’t continue. Florida, Cleveland, and LAA also probably won’t hold. As for the division dwellers, Boston has too much talent to be down there, and the Twins and White Sox will help flip that division around by season’s end.
Ben: I picked the White Sox to win the division and the Red Sox to miss the playoffs, so I am going to stick with that after a month into the season. The White Sox offense has been dreadful, as has their late-inning relief, but Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, and Matt Thornton are not as bad as they appeared to be in April. Although I think the Indians can keep performing well, the division still looks up for grabs to me. I still have a lot of confidence in Chicago’s rotation, especially in Gavin Floyd. I think he will turn it around soon as well. Striking out almost a batter per inning and walking just more than two batters per nine is a good formula for success. If he can keep the ball in the ballpark more, he should be able to perform as well as he has in the past.
Pat: I think the most obvious choice for “pretender” is the Angels (sorry, Garrett). Their presence at the top of the AL West has a lot to do with the Rangers’ injury problems and I think at some point Jered Weaver and Danny Haren will come back in the general direction of Earth. Both guys are great pitchers, but they’re both on other-worldly paces that are just tough to sustain. As for last place teams moving up, the White Sox and Twins are obviously easy choices but don’t just brush the Royals and Indians off because they haven’t been good. It’s not likely that those two will finish 1-2 in the AL Central, but I don’t think it’s impossible either.
Daniel: I don’t think the Marlins are going to end up all that close to winning the NL East (within a couple of games), and the Braves should pass them sooner or later. The Red Sox are an easy choice for the last place team, by virtue of the talent they have on their roster. They’ll start to get more production from Crawford and Gonzalez and co., and should make a run at at least a Wild Card bid.
