Time for another edition of the 3 Strikes Roundtable. This week, our think tank of baseball bloggers discuss the Yanks and the Sawx (come on, we had to get to them at some point!) and two teams that are traditionally at the other end of the spectrum… Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Would you believe the Royals and Pirates STILL have a better record than the BoSox?!? Neither can I. Time to ring ’em up!
Strike 1: Carl Crawford had a walk off winner for the Red Sox on Monday. Could this be a turning point for the high profile free agent signing and do you see a brighter future for him in Boston?
Mark Smith: Sometimes coincidences happen. Crawford just signed a shiny, new contract, and he’s moved to the spotlight and pressure of Boston. And now he’s off to the worst start of his career. There has to be a “worst start of his career” at some point, and unless you can promise me that his .255 BABiP, which is 75 points lower than his career norm, is here to stay, I’m not terribly worried.
Joe Lucia: Crawford is too good of a player to struggle all season. He just left the only franchise that he’s known over his career, so I’d expect some growing pains moving to a new city. Now that he’s acclimated to Boston, I’d expect him to start hitting well.
Ben Duronio: I think he has begun to turn it around. I don’t really think it was any one event that is going to all of a sudden turn the switch on for a guy as talented Crawford. He is going to hit and he is going to perform well. It was only a matter of time. Expect him to perform up to the levels that he has in the past going forward.
Garrett Wilson: Crawford isn’t the first star to sign a big free agent contract in a big media market and struggle with all the pressure and expectations and he won’t be the last. We can even see in the last week and a half that things are starting to come together for him by way of his .821 OPS so far in May. Plus, as the saying goes, speed never goes into a slump, so Carl will always have that going for him, which is nice.
Strike 2: Staying with East Coast Bias this week, are Derek Jeter’s offensive struggles an overrated or underrated story?
Ben: I think it is an interesting story because of how touchy the situation is with Jeter and potentially moving down in the lineup. I would not call it underrated nor overrated at this point. This is the process of winding down a career. You take less money, move around in the batting order, and eventually you probably change positions. I am not sure if Jeter ever will end up doing any of these things, but he has already done one and another is looming if the struggles continue. Also, I think it is relatively absurd that some argue he is back after a few games with good results.
Joe: I don’t think they’re a story at all. He’s aging, and as you age, your skills start to decline. That’s what’s happening with Jeter. I think the real story is why the Yankees are still putting him at the top of their lineup. If Brett Gardner rebounds, there is no reason for him and Jeter to swap spots.
Garrett: This story is both underrated and overrated. It is underrated because what we are seeing is strong evidence suggesting that Jeter, an aging future Hall of Famer, is on his last legs. He just isn’t an All-Star anymore and people need to learn to accept that now. However, it is also overrated because his “struggles” aren’t that big of a surprise. Here is his slash line for this year: .283/.336/.354. Now, here is his slash line for last year: .270/.340/.370. Look familiar? Yeah, he was pretty much this mediocre last year, so to say that he is struggling is more about bloated expectations than it is about him underperforming.
Mark: It’s a big story because it pertains to Derek Jeter, the New York Yankees, and the ridiculous contract the Yankees gave Jeter. But as Joe said, this is pretty normal for an aging player. That and the fact that Jeter’s BABiP is still way below his career norm. There’s four and a half months left in the season. Everyone just relax.
Strike 3: As of yesterday, the Pirates and Royals were both above .500 this late into the season for the first time since 1999. Which team has the better chance at actually having a winning season?
Garrett: I’ve got to go with KC, and I’m not even sure it is much of a debate. The Royals have a pretty good offense right now and it seems to be for real, what with all of their great young players. Their pitching hasn’t been great, but I would hardly say they are overachieving, especially in the rotation, so they should be able to maintain this level of competitiveness, if not actually improve a little bit. As for the Pirates, their offense isn’t all that good and much of their rotation seems to be pitching well over their head (see Morton, Charlie and Correia, Kevin and Maholm, Paul).
Joe: Right now, I’d probably say KC. They have a better young pitching staff than the Pirates, and more young players closer to the majors. The Pirates have a great core in McCutcheon, Tabata, Alvarez and Walker, but where is the the help after that? The Royals core of Butler, Gordon and now Hosmer has a higher ceiling, but the difference to me is the absence young pitching in Pittsburgh outside of James McDonald.
Mark: KC definitely has the better chance. It has better players closer to the majors that can help at just about every position, and it plays in perhaps the worst division in baseball. Pittsburgh still has to deal with a Brewers team that’s getting healthy, a good, deep Reds team, and a still-for-now-star-studded Cardinals team. They’ve had a nice start, but it won’t continue.
Ben: I think the Pirates do, personally. You cannot help but love Kansas City’s system, but most of their offensive performers to date should regress soon. Pittsburgh has some decent arms, some respectable young bats, and a closer who I really like. I do not expect either to end up with a winning record and a lot could change depending on what players are moved at the deadline, but I would pick the Pirates to have a better record at the end of the season.
