Game one: 5:07 PM in Philadelphia. Roy Halladay vs Kyle Lohse
Game two: 8:37 PM in Philadelphia. Cliff Lee vs Chris Carpenter
Game three: TBA in St Louis. Cole Hamels vs Jaime Garcia
Game four: TBA in St Louis. TBA
Game five: TBA in Philadelphia. TBA
Offense
St Louis has the edge here, as they have four players who have logged at least 4 fWAR on the season (Albret Pujols, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, and Yadier Molina). Molina very quietly has a .814 OPS for the Cardinals and is good balance at the bottom of the order. Pujols, Holliday and Berkman make up the heart of a very solid Cardinals order, and all three have OPSes above .900, with Berkman leading the way with his .959 mark in a nice comeback season. Midseason acquistion Rafael Furcal has an .820 OPS in September, and has been a great benefit at short for a team who was trotting out Ryan Theriot and his .663 OPS for the season’s first four months.
Philadelphia has just one player worth at least 4 fWAR, that being Shane Victorino, the center fielder who does everything well. Chase Utley’s offense has struggled in the 103 games he’s played this season, with his normally potent bat being neutered to post just a .769 OPS this year. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins has also struggled, as the former MVP has struggled to a .737 OPS this season. And I’d be remiss without mentioning Ryan Howard, another former MVP, who OPSed just .834 and whose awful defense and baserunning killed most of the offensive value Howard provided for the team. After four straight years of at least 40 homers, Howard has posted just above 30 in the last two seasons. However, Philly has gotten extraordinary value out of a pair of outfielders: John Mayberry Jr and Hunter Pence. Mayberry been earning most of the starts in left field due to the struggles of Raul Ibanez this year, and has a .854 OPS in just 296 plate appearances. Pence, acquired midseason from Houston, has been everything that Philly has dreamed of in right field, OPSing .954 in 236 plate appearances.
Starting Pitching
The advantage here goes to Philadelphia, quite obviously, but that’s not a knock on St Louis’ rotation. The four pitchers that the Cardinals will send out during the playoffs are Kyle Lohse, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, and Edwin Jackson. All four have ERAs in the general area of 3.50, which is pretty solid. Neither of the four strike out too many hitters, with Carpenter and Garcia both being above average and Lohse and Jackson below average. All four are sticklers with the walks.
But none of them can compare to the fearsome foursome that Philadelphia brings out. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels all threw 200 innings, and all are Cy Young candidates. All had ERAs under 3.00, with Hamels being the highest of the bunch at 2.79. All three strike out more hitters and walk fewer hitters than the Cardinals best in each category. Philadelphia’s fourth starter, assuming they just don’t throw Halladay in game four, would be Roy Oswalt, a veteran who’s battled injuries this year, but is still very effective with a 3.69 ERA. Philly has the clear advantage on the mound here.
Bullpen
Jason Motte and Ryan Madson are similar relievers, in that they are both hard throwers who get a lot of strikeouts that keep their walks low. Fernando Salas and Antonio Bastardo are similar pitchers with one major difference: control. They both strike out a hitter per inning, but Bastardo’s control is much more wild than Salas’. Philly actually brings three pitchers who can go multiple innings into the playoffs, with Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley all starting games this season. Philly also brings rookie Michael Stutes and the always enigmatic Brad Lidge into the series with them in their pen. The Cardinals bullpen has fewer long men, with just Jake Westbrook having started a game this year, but more true relievers, with guys like Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepczynski and Mitchell Boggs filling out the corps. Dotel and Rzepczynski have been excellent since coming over from Toronto midseason in the Colby Rasmus deal. I’m calling the bullpens a push.
Overall
If the Cardinals offense is able to get some runs on the board against Phillies starting pitching, they can win the serise. Alternatively, if the Cardinals pitching staff can hold the Phillys offense in check and turn it into a bullpen game, they can win this series. But I don’t think either of those things will happen. Philly’s starters are just way too good. Phillies in four.
