I assume that a lot of attention is going to be paid to the Cardinals/Phillies series when the NLDS kicks off on Saturday. The Cards lit the world on fire to sneak into the playoffs and the Phillies are the Phillies; baseball’s best record, baseball’s best pitching staff, three trips to at least the NLCS in the last three years, etc. That’s all well and good, but glossing over the Brewers/Diamondbacks series would be a mistake. No one backed into the National League playoffs this year: these are two good teams that are probably going to play an entertaining series, and whoever wins it will have a chance to go to the World Series, even if it is the Phillies waiting for them in the NLCS. So let’s break down this series.
Offense
Everyone associates the Brewers with offense, and rightly so. Not many teams can match Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the heart of a batting order. Toss in Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, and you’ve got yourself a heck of a lineup. The Brewers hit the most homers in the National League this year and their 721 runs scored ranked fifth in the National League.
What is a little more surprising is that it was the Diamondbacks who finished fourth. Everyone knows about Justin Upton and his great season (.898 OPS, 31 homers), but the D’Backs had a much deeper attack than just Upton. Miguel Montero stayed healthy all year and hit 18 home runs and a whopping 36 doubles in 140 games. Not many teams have a catcher that can hit like Montero. Ryan Roberts and Gerardo Parra and Chris Young all supplied solid offense. Aaron Hill killed the ball after he came to the NL in a trade with the Blue Jays. Paul Goldschmidt added some real pop after his call-up.
Is that enough to say that the Diamondbacks have an advantage on offense? It’s also important to note that their Chase Field is hitter-friendlier than the Brewers’ Miller Park. The D’Backs only outscored the Brewers by 10 runs over the season, surely their ballpark could account for the difference. And as good as Upton was this year, he didn’t match the numbers put up by Braun (.332/.397/.597) or Fielder (.299/.415/.566). The two best hitters in this series are Brewers, though the D’Backs lineup may be just a bit deeper.
Pitching
It’s awfully hard to top the 1-2 punch that the Brewers have in Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo. They’ve been absolutely on fire since the All-Star break. Both of them are striking out more than a hitter per inning with good walk rates and generally dominating the opposition. Shaun Marcum has tailed off a bit down the stretch and while Randy Wolf had a good year I’m not certain how reliable he’ll be in a playoff situation. Still, Greinke and Gallardo are easily as potent a 1-2 punch on the pitching side of things as Braun and Fielder are in the batter’s box.
For the Diamondbacks, Ian Kennedy is obviously coming off of a huge breakout year in which both his traditional stats (21-4, 2.88 ERA) and his peripheral stats (8.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9) were excellent. He might be a notch below Greinke and Gallardo, but it’s closer than anyone would’ve anticipated prior to the season. Beyond Kennedy, things are a bit tougher to parse for the D’Backs staff. The other three guys that made a lot of starts for them (Daniel Hudson, Josh Collmenter, Joe Saunders) all posted above-average ERAs, but not one of them has a strikeout rate higher than 7.0 K/9. Daniel Hudson had a strong year (6.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9), but his inning total (222) is starting to creep suspiciously high for a 24-year old in his first full big league season. As a team, the D’Backs have also given up a slightly suspicious 159 home runs. That might normally escape notice because of their ballpark, but since they’re playing the most homer-happy team in the NL it’s something to look out for.
In the bullpens, both teams have good closers (JJ Putz, John Axeford) and good setup men (David Hernandez, Francisco Rodriguez). Both teams have guys that can put out a fire if a starter gets in trouble (Kameron Loe, Micah Owings). I don’t want to say the bullpens are a wash, exactly, because I’d prefer most of the guys in the Brewers bullpen, but weird things happen to bullpens good and bad in short series, and it’s not usually something that can be predicted.
Managers and other intangibles
Kirk Gibson and Ron Roenicke are both in their first full seasons managing and they’re probably the two favorites to win NL Manager of the Year. Gibson was Bob Melvin’s bench coach when the Diamondbacks went to the NLCS in 2007, while Roenicke was on Mike Scoscia’s staff from 2000-2010, going to the playoffs a number of times and coaching third base for their World Series win in 2002. In short, both guys have been to the playoffs before in prominent coaching positions, though neither’s done so as a manager. Really, I think that the most important things a manager can do in the playoffs are to not have a complete breakdown (a la Grady Little in 2003) and to not try and take over a series when their team is struggling (Mike Scioscia in every playoff series against the Red Sox ever). Roenicke may be prone to more panic bunts and hit and a runs because of his time with Scoscia, but I think this is kind of an unknown until we see these guys actually manage some playoff teams.
Both squads have a few guys leftover form their previous playoff appearances, though the D’Backs have turned over a bit more. They’re bringing Upton, Stephen Drew, and Chris Young back from their 2007 club. Upton had a notably good performance in the 2007 playoffs for a 19-year old. For the Brewers, Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hart, and Gallardo all played in the 2008 team that lost in the NLDS to the Cubs. The Brewers also have Randy Wolf, who pitched with the Dodgers in their run to the NLCS in 2009, while for the D’Backs, Ian Kennedy has at least been around the the playoffs on his time with the Yankees, though he’s never pitched in a post-season game before.
Verdict
I like this Diamondback team quite a bit and think people are brushing them off way too easily. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see them pull an upset, but I do think it would be an upset if it happened, because I just have this feeling that this might be the Brewers’ year. Greinke and Gallardo have been legitimately awesome since the All-Star break, and that sort of pitching gives them the edge in a series where the offense might be a wash. With Prince Fielder hitting free agency after the season and Greinke and Marcum potentially on the market after 2012, the Brewers have to make the most of their run this year. I think they will, and it starts here. Brewers in four.
