Game one: the 8th at 8:05 in Texas, Justin Verlander vs. CJ Wilson
Game two: the 9th at 7:45 in Texas, Max Scherzer vs. Derek Holland
Game three: the 11th at 8:05 in Detroit, Doug Fister vs. Colby Lewis
Game four: the 12th at 4:19 in Detroit, Rick Porcello vs. Matt Harrison
Game five: the 13th at 4:19 in Detroit, Justin Verlander vs. CJ Wilson
Game six: the 15th at 8:05 in Texas, Max Scherzer vs. Derek Holland
Game seven: the 16th at 8:05 in Texas, Doug Fister vs. Colby Lewis
Previous Series:
The Tigers’ series with the Yankees took an unexpected turn when a lengthy game one rain delay early knocked both CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander out of the game. New York took that one 9-3, and with the Detroit ace only potentially getting one real start in the series, things didn’t look all that promising for the AL Central champs. Max Scherzer’s 6 shutout innings in game two were big, and after Verlander out-dueled Sabathia in game three (both starters give up an unexpected 4 runs, but the Tigers were able to get a run across against a New York pen that had to go two and a third) to take a 2-1 lead. The Yankees blew Detroit out again in game four, to set up the pivotal final game in New York. The Yankees started a come-back after an early 3-0 lead for the Tigers, but couldn’t finish it. Despite being outscored 28-17 in the series and having their best starter pitch to a 5.00 ERA, it was the Detroit Tigers moving on to the ALCS. More on the series from Garrett here.
The Rangers’ series with the Rays was the only one that didn’t go to game five, as Texas finished things out in four games. The Rays took the opener 9-0 behind the left arm of Matt Moore, but all three subsequent games were close and tilted in the Rangers’ favor. Texas won 4-3 in the final game, on four solo home runs – three by Adrian Beltre – to end Tampa Bay’s season (even though the Ray’s outscored Texas 21-16) in rather anticlimactic fashion given the way the team made the play-offs. More on the series from Joe here.
Position Players:
Both teams can certainly put runs on the board. Texas hit .283/.340/.460 this year, while Detroit hit .277/.340/.434. The difference isn’t as big as it appears though, because of the difference between their home ballparks. The Rangers have a little more working at the top end though, with five batters who posted a wRC+ (adjusted runs created relative to league average) over 125 (Mike Napoli, Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and Michael Young) to the Tigers’ three (Miguel Cabrera, Alex Avila, and Victor Martinez). Napoli actually outhit Cabrera this year, though given their histories it’s more than fair to assume that Miggy is the best hitter for either side in this series. The depth of the Texas line-up gives them the edge though.
Defensively, the Rangers come out ahead more substantially. The infield with Kinsler-Andrus-Beltre is one of the best in baseball, while Detroit is more mediocre with the gloves overall. This helps explain why the Texas’s position players racked up 39 Wins Above Replacement this year (second most in baseball), while the Tigers were a full 10 wins behind at 29 fWAR. As Delmon Young showed in the ALDS with his three home runs though (after hitting only 12 all year with a .695 OPS), anyone can get hot for 5-7 games.
Pitchers:
Detroit has the likely AL Cy Young winner on their side, but over the 2011 season as a whole it was Texas that had the better staff. The Rangers had a 3.79 ERA, 3.98 FIP, and 3.83 xFIP to the Tigers’ 4.04 ERA, 3.96 FIP, and 4.04 xFIP. The addition of Doug Fister at the trade deadline was helpful to Detroit though (he had a 1.87 ERA as a Tiger), and looking at the season numbers for just each team’s top four starters gives the advantage to them; 3.49 ERA, 3.49 FIP, and 3.57 xFIP for the Tigers’ hurlers vs. 3.65 ERA, 3.80 FIP, and 3.77 xFIP for the Rangers. It’s not unreasonable to think that every non Verlander-Wilson game is close to wash as far as the pitching match-ups go; and even though CJ Wilson is certainly capable of pitching a gem, there’s one guy in this series who everyone would bet on to be the one to throw a no-hitter (in Verlander vs. the field, Verlander might still be the favorite).
Neither bullpen was amazing during the season, but Texas upgraded theirs with trades and now boasts a formidable back end; Mike Adams, Koji Uehara, and Neftali Feliz are entirely capable of turning games into six inning affairs. Jose Valverde was obviously the one who had the perfect season in save opportunities, but if things are close going into the later innings then the Rangers have the edge.
Overall:
Anything can happen in seven games, but the Rangers seem to have most of the advantages; they’ve got the better offense and the better run prevention unit (when you factor in defense), plus home field. If Justin Verlander were slated to make three starts in the series that might have made things closer, but Texas appears to be the more complete team.
