When I talked about Ryan Madson’s new contract yesterday, I talked about how big money contracts hadn’t really worked for for relievers in the past. Today, I’m going to expand upon that idea a little bit, and show just why paying a reliever eight figures per season really isn’t the wisest decision. Here are the eight contracts in MLB history where a reliever made more than $10 million a year, and how the pitcher performed over the life of the contract. Note: I’m looking at average annual value over the life of the contract.
1. Mariano Rivera. $15 million per season (2008-2012)
Rivera’s deal is actually currently in effect right now, with the Yankees closer making $15 million in each season since 2008, and he will make the same salary in 2012. Rivera is the best reliever of all-time, and the one most worthy of a contract like this. Over the first four years of the contract, he’s pitched 258 1/3 innings, struck out 254 batters, walked just 37, has a 1.71 ERA and has saved 160 games. You can’t get much better than that. Yet, this shows the major flaw in overpaying relievers. Rivera’s been the best, yet over those four years, he’s been worth just 9.3 fWAR, or an average of $6.45 million per win over the life of the contract so far. The going rate per win is abouve $4.5 million, so the Yankees are overpaying Rivera by 43%.
2. Brad Lidge. $12.5 million per season (2009-2011)
Lidge is the perfect example of why you shouldn’t overpay a reliever. Injuries destroyed his 2010 and 2011 campaigns, and ineffectiveness marred his 2009 year. In his three years, he threw 123 2/3 innings, struck out 136, walked 71, had a 4.73 ERA, and saved 58 games. He was worth -0.2 fWAR over the life of the deal. The Phillies actually $37.5 million to have a negative impact on the team over the life of the deal. But hey, he had a perfect season in 2008!
3. Francisco Rodriguez. $12.3 million per season (2009-2011)
Ah, the typical New York Mets overpay. Rodriguez’s 2008 season resulted in a record-setting 62 games (as if that matters at the end of the day). During Rodriguez’s career with the Mets (and for the back half of 2011, the Brewers), he saved a total of 83 games. He was worth a whopping 3.1 fWAR over the life of the deal, but did manage to strike out 219 (admittedly, his 85 walks were ugly) in 197 innings. Three fWAR in three years? For $37 million dollars? Insane.
4. Jonathan Papelbon. $12 million per season (2011)
This was the settlement between Papelbon and the Red Sox to avoid arbitration before this season. 2011 was one of the best seasons of Papelbon’s career, and he was actually worth the salary, racking up 3.0 fWAR on the year while saving 31 games with a 2.94 ERA, 87 strikeouts, and just 10 walks in 64 1/3 innings. This deal actually….worked well. Now, would I give Papelbon the same salary for the next four years? Not a chance in hell.
5. Joe Nathan. $11.75 million per season (2008-2011)
Hey look, another injured player! Nathan missed all of 2010 and was ineffective in 2011 after Tommy John surgery, so the Twins really ended up paying him $47 million for two seasons. He was pretty great in the first two years of the contract, combining for 4.0 fWAR, 163 strikeouts and 86 saves in 136 1/3 innings. But those four fWAR would be all he’d contribute because of the injury. In 2011, Nathan saved just 14 games while striking out 43 in 44 2/3 innings. His 4.84 ERA was Nathan’s highest ever as a reliever, by nearly two runs. It boggles my mind at why a team would give eight figures to a player like Madson when you could easily pay that money to Nathan, a former elite closer who would probably not require a lot of money in 2012. But the point still stands. Nathan was worth four wins in four seasons, and made $47 million.
6. Francisco Cordero. $11.5 million per season (2008-2011)
Another mess of a contract. Cordero got this deal on the basis of a 44 save, 2.4 fWAR season in 2007 with the Brewers. So, the Reds proceeded to hand him $46 million guaranteed. He got the SAVES, racking up 150 in four years, but had a 3.35 ERA, 237 strikeouts, and 126 walks in 279 1/3 innings. At the end of the day though, that performance was just worth 2.8 fWAR. He made $16.4 million for every one win he accrued. Well then, that worked out well for him….not so much for the Reds, though.
7. Billy Wagner. $10.75 million per season (2006-2009)
I know this is going to come as a total shock, but Wagner is ANOTHER player on this list who got injured. He blew out his elbow in 2008, and would only throw a total of 62 2/3 innings over the final two years of the deal. Like Nathan, he was good in the first two years, accruing 3.4 fWAR. Hell, even in the final two seasons when he was hurt, Wagner was worth 1.6 fWAR. Five wins over four years is not worth $43 million, though. $8.6 million per win isn’t nearly as dire as some of the contracts on this list (Mr Cordero and Mr Rodriguez, I’m looking in your direction), but it’s absolutely not ideal. Like Nathan, Wagner was a buy low option the year after his big contract expired, signing on with the Braves for $6.75 million in 2010. He was worth 2.2 fWAR, and retired after the season. Now *that’s* how you do a reliever contract.
8. Kerry Wood. $10.25 million per season (2009-2010)
The Indians signed Wood to be their closer after the 2008 season, and traded him to the Yankees midway through 2010, where he was a setup man for Mariano Rivera. For the $20.5 million that he made, Wood saved 28 games, threw just 101 innings, struck out 112, walked 57, and had a 3.74 ERA. That wasn’t exactly what the Indians had in mind when they brought him in, and gave him eight figures. But at least it was only a two year deal. But lord, 0.6 fWAR over two years for $20.5 million is really hideous.
This serves as a warning shot to Phillies fans who are excited about bringing their closer back for four more years, and hell, any team who thinks they need a closer and want to lock up one of the ones on the market for a lot of money. Paying big money doesn’t always work out, and in the case of a reliever, it rarely works out. Just keep that in mind, and remember that the best closer in baseball last year (Craig Kimbrel of the Braves, who had a 2.10 ERA, 46 saves, and was worth 3.2 fWAR) was paid the league minimum. Paying for a known commodity isn’t the best option a lot of the time when it comes to the end of the game.
Also, an odd note: four of the nine eight figure contracts handed to relievers (including Madson) were from teams in the NL East, specifically the Phillies and Mets. Must be something in the water up here in the northeast.
