After being a game away from heading to the playoffs in an improbable 2010 campaign, the San Diego Padres came crashing down to the bottom of the barrel in the National League West, mainly due to a number of trades, an underperforming offense and a pitching staff that was hit by injuries and production issues. They went from 90 to 71 wins and now look at a rebuilding mode from top to bottom with the imminent departure of GM Jed Hoyer to join new Chicago Cubs president Theo Epstein on his staff. The loss of Adrian Gonzalez didn’t mean a 19 win swing, exactly, but the other issues combined to sink Bud Black’s team and their chances at contention early in the season.
WHAT WENT RIGHT
For starters, Cameron Maybin proved once more that sometimes, all that is necessary is a change of scenery. After underwhelming in Florida for a few seasons after being the centerpiece of the famed Miguel Cabrera trade to the Detroit Tigers in 2007, Maybin was traded to San Diego for two relievers before the 2011 season and put up a 4.7 wins above replacement by Fangraphs numbers. The spacious center field area at Petco allowed him to roam free and use his speed to track down balls in the gaps, and even with only a .264/.323/.393 line, his 40 stolen bases gave him added value. He’ll be a great guy to have up the middle and if his power develops over the next few seasons, there’s a chance that Mike Cameron comps will be coming his way. The Padres also got good half-seasons by Nick Hundley (although he was plagued by injuries) and Jesus Guzman (who got a shot due to Anthony Rizzo’s stuttering at the Major League level). Chase Headley was above average at third, but lacks power for all that on-base ability.
WHAT WENT WRONG
The pitching staff, which was the main reason the Padres were able to make their run in 2010, came back to Earth in 2011, with only staff ace Mat Latos (3.4 WAR) and Cory Luebke (2.4 WAR) being above average. After that, they had a replacement level starting staff and the bullpen was depended on more than the previous season. Heath Bell had 43 saves, but his strikeout rate came down by 4 points from 2010 and his FIP went up over a point thanks to a low BABIP (.261). Mike Adams was then traded to Texas during his best season. Overall, the team couldn’t make up for the offensive production of Gonzalez (both Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson were barely average this year and are the two highest priced players on the team) and the pitching just took a deep dive across the board.
SURPRISES
Hundley and Luebke were great pieces to a team that wasn’t expecting much from either, and of course, the breakout of Maybin was somewhat unexpected considering he never played up to his talent level in the first place. Adams’ emergence led to a decent trade for the Padres at the deadline, although the widely rumored Bell trades were much ballyhooed throughout the year.
DISAPPOINTMENTS
But the biggest surprise was the plight of Rizzo at the Major League level after he raked at Triple-A (.141/.282/.281 with San Diego as opposed to .331/.404/.652 in the minors). He’s the centerpiece of that Gonzalez trade and people expected the mashing first baseman and his supreme uppercut swing to try and replace Gonzo’s production, but he failed in his first attempt. Guzman’s appearance might slow him down a bit, but he has a Spring Training to prove otherwise in 2012.
2012 CHANGES
That’s where it becomes a mystery for San Diego. The Padres will have only $13.5 million in payroll responsibilities in 2012. They are expected to have a payroll near the $50 million mark, meaning that if they are to hit their payroll ceiling, they can go out and make a lot of moves to get to that mark. There’s just one problem with that: The free agent market in for 2012 is a weak one, and will probably see the Padres overpay for players more than anything else. They’ll most likely give Rizzo a shot at 1B and Headley should stick at 3B, so guys like Aramis Ramirez or Prince Fielder are out of the picture. Heath Bell is leaving, but Luke Gregerson can step into the closer’s role pretty easily. With Hoyer going to Chicago to join Epstein, the Padres have to look for a new GM, as well. Guys like Toronto’s Tony LeCava are in play to replace Hoyer. There’s truly a lot that will change in the month’s period between the end of the World Series and the Winter Meetings.
POSITION BATTLES
There isn’t much of a battle on the team in a lot of areas, although Guzman’s emergence might give Rizzo pause for thought about bringing his best to Arizona next spring. If Rizzo does make the team, they could have Guzman fake an outfield corner, but his defense is pretty much atrocious. Casey Kelly has a chance to make an impact in 2012 as another top-flight power right-hander, but chances are it won’t be until late in the season. The battles won’t become apparent until they get the new blood in there, so we’ll see what happens once the GM and free agents get into the mix.
