The Brewers went all-in in 2011, emptying out the farm system for the pitching they’d desperately been craving to supplement their Braun/Fielder led offense. It almost worked, too, getting them just their second playoff series win in franchise history and their first-ever NLCS berth. They fell short, though, dropping the NLCS to their division-rival Cardinals in six games. Now with Fielder facing free agency, where do the Brewers go?
WHAT WENT RIGHT
During the second half of the season, the answer to this question is “almost everything.” Braun played at an MVP-level, Fielder played at near-MVP level, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks finally stayed healthy enough after the break to form a competent supporting cast, Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo were nigh-unhittable, John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez were nails in the eighth and ninth innings. The Brewers were unstoppable after the All-Star Break, going 47-23 and outscoring opponents 316 to 232. That was the team Doug Melvin wanted to see when he made the Greinke and Marcum trades over the winter, and in July, August, and September, he had it.
WHAT WENT WRONG
I’m a little hesitant to say that anything went “wrong” here, other than that the Cardinals got red-hot and absolutely mashed their way through what seemed like a tired Brewers’ pitching staff in the NLCS. If the Brewers get one hop in, say, their 4-3 loss to the Cardinals in Game 3, then maybe Gallardo wins Game 7 and who knows what happens from there? If you want to be more specific, both Greinke and Marcum pitched poorly in the NLCS and the defense, which was spotty all year and especially in the first half, did them no favors. This Brewer offense was good, but not quite as good as the bombers of years past. When their pitching deserted them, the offense just couldn’t score enough runs to press forward.
SURPRISES
Honestly, not much that this team did was “surprising” per se. The way things came together after the break maybe exceeded expectations a bit, but it wasn’t surprising. After they added Marcum and Greinke in the off-season, it was clear that they were going to try and make a run at the NL pennant, and that’s what they did. There were a few revelations throughout the year (Marco Estrada turned in a fine year as a reliever, Nyjer Morgan flourished as a platoon player), but there wasn’t much that came out of left field. They did what they were supposed to do, really, and given that they didn’t end up in the World Series, you could probably argue that they came up short.
DISAPPOINTMENTS
I think Marcum fits the bill here. The best prospect the Brewers gave up in any trade over the winter was Brett Lawrie, and Marcum completely faded on the Crew in September and October after a strong start to the season. In his three playoff starts, he gave up 16 (!) earned runs in 9 2/3 innings, with the Brewers losing all three games. If he’d made just one decent start against the Cardinals, maybe the entire tone of this writeup is different.
2012 CHANGES
No Fielder. Braun replaced Fielder as the centerpiece of the offense this year, but finding 30-40 homers and 30-35 doubles from a free agent first baseman won’t be easy this winter. The Brewers might be better off signing someone like Derrek Lee. improving another weak spot and hoping that the cumulative effect replaces Fielder better than any one inidvidual first baseman might. The obvious weak spot to improve would be shortstop, where Yuniesky Betancourt is a free agent after his option was declined. Rodriguez will also be a free agent and presumably head to a team that will let him close, which the Brewers have no intention of doing due to the presence of Axford. Randy Wolf, Greinke, and Marcum will all be back, but they’re also all only signed through 2012 and if things don’t go well, it’s possible that any one (or more) of the trio could be moved, though the Brewers should at least be expecting to contend in 2012 and so that sort of move wouldn’t come until the season starts.
POSITION BATTLES
Beyond the holes that will need filled (first base, shortstop, the back end of the bullpen) via free agency or trade, this team is pretty much set with the possible exception of third base. Casey McGehee has been getting progressively worse since his surprising breakout in 2009 and he was flat-out terrible in 2011. If the Brewers do go outside the organization to fill the Prince Fielder void at first, there’s probably a good chance that Taylor Green and Mat Gamel are given an opportunity to push McGehee for the starting job at third.
