It’s hard to remember that Travis Snider is only 23 years old. Drafted as the 14th overall pick in 2006, it seems like he’s been around forever. Snider made his debut just two short years after he was drafted at the blossoming age of 20, and he had all the makings of a superstar because, well, that’s what you’re supposed to be when you reach the majors at 20. The young outfielder, however, hasn’t really come close to matching those lofty standards, and after bits of four frustrating seasons, he finds himself back down in AAA, mashing to the tune of .500/.606/.615 in 7 games. The question most of us want to know, especially for us Travis Snider owners, is if it’s time to give up on the young lefty.
For Travis Snider’s career, he is hitting .243/.313/.423, and that simply isn’t the mark of a power-hitting outfielder. Comparing him to his contemporaries, we can use OPS+, which uses a scale to compare players’ OPS, and Snider scores a 97 (100 is average), which means he’s just slightly below-average. Being average, however, isn’t good enough for a corner outfielder who is nothing special with the glove. We expect corner outfielders to make up for their defense and position (it’s easier to find good hitters who can play LF/RF than it is to find them to play SS, for example), and Snider is not doing that. He needs to hit to become a viable major-league hitter.
So what’s happened? He clearly blew through the minor leagues, so he has talent. Did the Blue Jays move him too fast? After massacring Rookie Ball in 2006, Snider put up an impressive .313/.377/.525 line in Low A in 2007, but things sped up in 2008. After 17 games and a .279/.333.557 line in High-A, he was quickly moved up to AA, where he hit .262/.357/.461. If there was something troubling in his stats, it was his strikeout rate, which had climbed from the mid-to-upper 20s to percentages in the mid-30s. He was striking out an awful lot, but the Blue Jays kept pushing him. 98 games into his stint in AA, he moved up to AAA, and 18 games later, he was in the majors.At that point, we know what happened, but did the Blue Jays push him too fast? Perhaps, but every time he’s gone back to AAA, he’s put up ridiculous numbers. He clearly has nothing left to learn from AAA, which has left many to wonder if he is a AAAA player—someone who mashes AAA pitching but cannot hit major-league pitching, or a “tweener”. It’s a dreaded tag, but I think it’s unfounded. Here’s why.
Against right-handed pitching, Snider is hitting .250/.319/.441, which is unimpressive but basically league-average. Against left-handed pitching, however, Snider is awful, hitting .230/.286/.348. Now, you might be tempted to say the reason he is struggling is because he cannot hit left-handed pitching, and you’re right but only partially. Players do not face many quality lefties growing up, and when players are drafted, their first real experience against them begins in the minors. Snider, not having spent much time in the minors, never got many repetitions against them, and if you don’t face them, it’s hard to develop.
All of this makes it seem like the Blue Jays rushed him, but as I said, I don’t think that’s the case. He mashes AAA pitching. He needs to learn by hitting major-league pitching, and here’s where the Blue Jays screwed up. Platooning has been the bane of Snider’s MLB existence. Cito Gaston would commonly sit Snider against left-handed pitchers in order to “protect” him. This is a common theory. You protect young hitters by letting them only face their opposite-handed pitchers, and when they rake, they gain confidence, enough that they can hit same-handed pitchers. Sounds nice, but it doesn’t work that way. Lefties, especially, need plate appearances against other lefties to learn how to hit them. You can’t learn to hit it if you aren’t exposed to it. Instead of platooning him, Gaston and the Blue Jays should have let him hit lefties, probably failing statistically but gaining valuable experience, which brings us to the issue. Major-league teams want production, and if Snider isn’t producing against lefties (which he isn’t), then they want someone who can. The problem is that Snider will never learn unless he faces lefties, but he’ll never face lefties until he succeeds against them, which isn’t possible if he never faces them. See the problem? But this is where the Blue Jays messed up. They were not really contending anyway, and they really had nothing to lose by letting him take a few lumps against lefties. Now, the Blue Jays have a 23-year old who can hit righties at a major-league level, but that same 23-year old hits lefties at a AA level.
Giving up on Snider at the age of 23 is ridiculous, but the Blue Jays aren’t helping. He needs to be in the major leagues hitting every day and definitely against lefties. It’s the only way he’s going to learn, and as he plays every day, he’ll also get better against righties. There’s no reason to believe that Snider cannot still be the dominant offensive force he was expected to be, but every time the Blue Jays demote him or sit him against lefties, the more delayed the appearance of the dominant Snider will be. If you have Snider for a this-year-only fantasy league, he may not be much of a help, but if you have him in a keeper league, you might want to hold onto him. That is unless the damage is irreparably done, which I don’t think it is. He’s only 23.
