We covered the Tigers' question marks — or weaknesses — in left field and the bullpen in an earlier post, and thus won't repeat them here. (What kind of blogging would that be?) But despite an overall roster that appears relatively solid, there are some underlying questions that Detroit will have to answer affirmatively if the team is to hold off the Indians and Royals in the AL Central, return to the postseason and compete for another trip to the World Series.
Will Alex Avila ever again be the hitter he was in 2011?
In his first full major league season, Avila looked as if he could be one of the best young catchers in MLB. In 2011, he hit .295 with an .895 OPS, 19 home runs and 82 RBI. Avila was named to the AL All-Star team and won a Silver Slugger award after the season.
However, maybe Avila was a little bit too good, in that manager Jim Leyland couldn't afford to take him out of the lineup. Avila played a grueling 133 games at catcher, partially because Omir Santos was the backup, but also because Victor Martinez couldn't catch with a sprained knee. By the end of the season, he was completely worn down and had nothing left for the playoffs. In 11 games, Avila compiled a slash average of .073/.116/.146 and developed a knee injury.
He hasn't been the same player since. The Tigers learned their lesson by bringing in Gerald Laird in 2012 and Brayan Pena last year to reduce Avila's workload at catcher. But he's been nowhere close to the kind of hitter and run producer he was in 2011. Last season, Avila hit .227 with a .693 OPS and generally sat against left-handed pitching. He also sustained a concussion after taking a foul ball to the facemask in August, resulting in a stint on the seven-day disabled list.
If Avila's legs are worn out from all that squatting, that could understandably have an affect on his hitting — particularly his power. Yet what's concerning about his decline is the drop in his on-base percentage. Even when Avila batted .243 in 2012, he still registered a .352 on-base percentage. Last year, however, that mark dropped to .317. Obviously, a lower batting average would factor into that. But Avila doesn't seem to have the same eye at the plate. Is he expanding his strike zone, swinging at pitches he previously laid off from? Perhaps he's wondering why he's not hitting like he did in 2011 as well.
How will Drew Smyly handle the transition from reliever to starter?
Moving Smyly into the starting rotation shouldn't be a surprise. Smyly has been a starter throughout his career, going back to college. He pitched well in that role in 2012, compiling a 3.79 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 95 innings over 18 starts. The 24-year-old lefty was moved to the bullpen largely out of necessity, as there wasn't a place for him in the starting rotation and the bullpen needed a strikeout arm in later innings.
But with Doug Fister traded to the Nationals, Smyly is a starter again. That seemed to be the plan all along, as the Tigers were going to trade either Fister or Rick Porcello to save some money. Plus, Smyly is worth far more to the Tigers as a pitcher who can contribute more than the 70 innings a reliever typically throws.
That leads to one of the primary questions concerning Smyly, however. How many innings can he be expected to pitch this season? Smyly threw 126 innings in 2011 between Single-A and Double-A. The following year, Smyly pitched 116.2 innings between Triple-A and the majors. Is that about where the Tigers will limit his workload this season, in the 120-inning range? Could he possibly throw around 160 innings?
As the fifth starter, Detroit will be able to give Smyly a rest when needed, skipping his turn on an off-day or whenever his arm needs a break. The Tigers aren't setting an innings limit on their young left-hander — at least not publicly — but will certainly monitor his workload closely throughout the season.
What if Nick Castellanos isn't ready for prime time?
Perhaps the biggest question concerning the Tigers going into the 2013 season is their rookie third baseman and No. 1 minor league prospect. Detroit is hoping Castellanos is ready to be a major league regular. That was surely a factor in trading Prince Fielder to the Rangers and moving Miguel Cabrera back to first base. Detroit likely still would've made that deal anyway. The team needed to shed Fielder's contract and the environment surrounding him had become toxic.
Whether it's out of confidence or necessity, Castellanos is getting a shot to be a part of the everyday lineup and fulfill the potential attached to him as the Tigers' first-round draft pick in 2010. The 22-year-old put up solid numbers last year with Triple-A Toledo, batting .276 with a .793 OPS, 18 home runs and 76 RBI. He appears ready to take the next step.
Castellanos' future appeared to be in the outfield with Cabrera entrenched at third base, but those plans obviously changed during the offseason. Moving back to his more natural position (Castellanos was a shortstop out of high school) should also yield some benefits. While Castellanos was learning the outfield and becoming a serviceable defender in left field, he's admittedly more comfortable playing the infield. Not having to think about his defense — though it's still an adjustment for him — could presumably help his mental approach while hitting as well.
To be blunt, the Tigers need Castellanos to succeed at third base. If he doesn't, the position becomes a black hole in Detroit's lineup. Don Kelly or Steve Lombardozzi could fill in defensively and do a decent job. But neither of those players will contribute much offensively. (Out of desperation, the Tigers could presumably move Cabrera back to third and play Martinez at first base. Yet that would leave a hole at DH.) It was a risk for the Tigers not to sign an insurance policy (Eric Chavez, for example) in case Castellanos needs more development. There aren't many good third basemen around MLB and trying to fill the position at the trade deadline would be difficult.
