Previous Series
The Rangers defeated the Rays three games to one in the ALDS, and knocked off the Tigers four games to two in the ALCS. The Cardinals upset the top-seeded Phillies three games to two in the NLDS, and defeated the Brewers four games to two in the NLCS.
Schedule
Game one: October 19th, 8:05 PM, CJ Wilson vs Chris Carpenter
Game two: October 20th, 8:05 PM, Colby Lewis vs Jaime Garcia
Game three: October 22nd, 8:05 PM, Undecided vs Kyle Lohse
Game four: October 23rd, 8:05 PM, Undecided vs Edwin Jackson
Game five (if necessary): October 24th, 8:05 PM, Undecided
Game six (if necessary): October 26th, 8:05 PM, Undecided
Game seven (if necessary): October 27th, 8:05 PM, Undecided
At the Plate
Two of the top offenses from this year’s playoffs will battle in this one. The Cardinals have a .793 OPS this postseason, while the Rangers have a .764 OPS. The results were similar during the regular season, when Texas was second in baseball with an .800 OPS, and the Cardinals were fifth with a .766 OPS. Offensively in these playoffs, the Cardinals have been carried by three players, two of which are household names: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols. The third is someone you may not have heard of, third baseman David Freese. Freese, the 2011 NLCS MVP, has a 1.315 OPS and a team-leading four homers during the playoffs in a season where he initially didn’t seem to have much going on, with just a .791 OPS in 333 at bats during the regular season. As for the two stars, Pujols has a 1.211 OPS in these playoffs, highlighted by a .490 on-base percentage. These numbers are coming on the heels of a regular season that was considered “down” by Pujols standards: .299/.368/.541 with 37 homers an 99 RBI. That’s a bad year for him, folks. Finally, there’s Holliday, who battled a hand injury but has still been productive in the playoffs. Despite just three extra base hits, he has a .976 OPS and is looking excellent lately. NL comeback player of the year Lance Berkman is struggling this postseason, with only a .683 OPS in the playoffs and two extra base hits. He does have a team-leading two stolen bases, in spite of the fact that he’s never been known as a threat on the bases.
The Rangers have really just had one dominant bat in their lineup in these playoffs: outfielder Nelson Cruz, who struggled down the stretch for the Rangers before exploding for six homers and a 1.084 OPS in the ten playoff games the Rangers have played this year. Third baseman Adrian Beltre, who just joined the Rangers this season, has an .813 OPS, but most of that is predicated by a three homer game in the ALDS against the Rays. Beltre has struck out a team high 11 times. Leadoff man Ian Kinsler has been a solid hand at the top of the lineup, with a .846 OPS and a .396 OBP. That’s pretty much what he needs to do to help this team’s offense. Two other big bats, Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton, have just one home run between them.
Right now, the Cardinals hitters are hotter, but the Rangers appear to be a little more consistent. I’ll go with the hotness. Advantage: Cardinals
On the Mound
Of the four Rangers postseason starters, Colby Lewis has the lowest ERA at 3.86. Ace CJ Wilson has struggled, allowing 14 runs in 15 2/3 innings over three starts. Derek Holland has struck out just seven in 13 2/3 innings, and Matt Harrison has gone just five innings in both of his playoff starts. It’s a rough go for Texas’ rotation, but their strength lies in their bullpen. Alexi Ogando, who probably should be in the playoff rotation, has allowed just one run in 10 1/3 relief innings while striking out 12. Long reliever Scott Feldman has allowed just three hits, while allowing no runs on walks, in 8 2/3 innings. Closer Neftali Feliz has four walks in 7 1/3 innings, but has allowed just one run. The lone weak point in the Rangers bullpen, midseason acquisition Koji Uehara, won’t be a factor in the World Series, as he was left off the final roster.
And then….there are the Cardinals, who are similar to the Rangers in many ways. Their lowest starter’s ERA is Chris Carpenter’s 3.71. Jaime Garcia and Edwin Jackson have both been homer happy, allowing seven bombs in their six starts, spanning 28 innings. Despite seven walks and one strikeout in his two starts, Kyle Lohse has a 7.45 ERA, thanks to 13 hits and eight runs. The Cardinals starters aren’t in much better shape than the Rangers starters. Closer Jason Motte has been dominant, allowing just one hit in eight innings while striking out seven and not walking a hitter. Former closer Fernando Salas has thrown 9 2/3 innings of two run ball, walking one and striking out eight. Octavio Dotel, who was brought over from the Blue Jays midseason in the Colby Rasmus trade, has allowed one run in two hits and a walk in 6 2/3 innings, striking out nine in the process.
This is a tough one. Both teams have had excellent work from their bullpens to help supplement some awful outings from their starters. The best pitcher between the teams is a Cardinal (Carpenter), but I’d say the next three or four are Rangers, and I’m going to give them the edge there. Advantage: Rangers
Overall
This is a real evenly matched series. The Rangers have been a freight train all season, dominating the AL West and hardly breaking a sweat in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals had to scrape and claw out of a huge hole in September, and made it into the playoffs on the season’s final day. They upset the heavily favored Phillies in the opening round, and then beat the narrative-laden, fan favorite Brewers to make the Fall Classic. I think more talent lies with St Louis, but Texas has been doing it all year, and was in this same spot last year. I don’t think Ron Washington’s crew lets another title escape them. Rangers in six.
