It was expected to be a year where the Phillies would contend for a world championship. And to an extent, the season was a total success. The team won a franchise record 102 games, the four aces (later pared to three as Roy Oswalt battled injury problems) were lights out for a majority of the year, and Shane Victorino had one of the best years of any hitter in the National League. But alas, the script didn’t hold up, as the Phillies lost in five games to the NLDS to the Cardinals. Now, it’s time to take a look at the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies to see just what happened to this chic World Series favorite.
WHAT WENT RIGHT
The Phillies had the most wins in baseball this season, and the best in franchise history, so a lot of things clearly went right. Roy Halladay, the returning Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels dominated the National League unlike any trio we’ve seen since the days of the mid-90s Atlanta Braves. All had ERAs under 3.00 (with Hamels being the highest at 2.79), all three struck out at least eight batters per nine innings and walked under two, and all threw over 200 innings. The trio combined for 50 of the Phillies 102 wins. After Roy Oswalt battled injury and only started 21 games, rookie Vance Worley stepped up as a worthy compliment to the trio, forming a dominant rotation when Oswalt returned late in the summer. Worley posted a 3.01 ERA in 21 starts and looks like he could be a solid mid to back end of the rotation starter for the Phillies in the future.
In his walk year, closer Ryan Madson was damn good. He saved 32 games, posted a 2.37 ERA, and struck out a batter per inning. Not to be outdone, a setup man stepped up for the Phillies in 2011: Antonio Bastardo, who struck out 70 in 58 innings and had a 2.64 ERA despite a piss poor ground ball rate.
Offensively, it was a mixed bag. Shane Victorino had an MVP caliber year, combining patience, power, defense and speed to chalk up a .846 OPS. Chase Utley played in only 103 games, but was still second among offensive players on the team in fWAR, with a .769 OPS and his usual stellar defense. Also, Hunter Pence was an absolute demon after being acquired from the Astros in July, OPSing .954 in just 54 games. There’s also John Mayberry Jr, who finally got extended playing time in the majors, and was worth 2.5 fWAR in just 296 plate appearances.
WHAT WENT WRONG
The failures of the 2011 Phillies lie mostly with their offense. Ryan Howard had his worst year yet, with an .834 OPS, awful defense, and horrendous baserunning to post just 1.6 fWAR, the lowest of the eight Phillies hitters. Rookie Domonic Brown didn’t succeed much in his major league debut season, missing a third of the season with a broken hand and posting a .724 OPS after returning in 56 games before losing his job to Pence. The power Jimmy Rollins showed when he won his MVP award in 2007 disappeared, as his ISO was just .131 and his overall OPS was only .737. Oh, and there’s Raul Ibanez. He had a .289 OBP. I don’t need to say much more than that.
The Phillies pitching staff wasn’t too bad, as we’ve already outlined. Oswalt only threw 139 innings of 3.69 ERA ball….not bad, but not up to the standard set by his rotation-mates. Spot starter and long reliever Kyle Kendrick managed to pitch to a 3.22 ERA, but had a 4.55 FIP thanks to his inability to strike hitters out. Jose Contreras, who was expected to be the main eighth inning guy this year for the Fightins, pitched just 14 innings. Closer Brad Lidge, who has been hampered by injury and ineffectiveness since his perfect, World Championship year of 2008, threw just 19 1/3 innings of low leverage baseball. He walked 13 hitters in those 19 1/3 innings as well.
SURPRISES
Mayberry was far and away the biggest surprise on this Phillies team. He’s a guy who’s been typecast as a platoon player for a majority of his career, and finally getting major league playing time at the age of 27, he OPSed .854 and looked like a possible building block for the future. After the midseason trade for Pence, he was even better than advertised and became a cult hero among the rabid Phillies faithful. And what about Worley, who was expected to be a bullpen arm but turned out to be a solid starter for the team? The Phillies learned a decent bit about their core this year.
DISAPPOINTMENTS
Ibanez wasn’t really expected to be good….but his three year career with the Phillies went from “above average” to “average” to “borderline offensive”. No one expected him to be THIS bad. His OPS went from .793 to .708. Yikes. Brown was another big disappointment, as the team was expecting a season reminiscent of Jason Heyward’s 2010. What they got was reminiscent of Heyward’s 2011. Howard was also pretty disappointing. “The Big Piece” had a slugging percentage under .500 for the first time in his career, and his batting average was a near career low of .253. To add on to his misery, he tore his Achilles on the final play of the 2011 season, and his five year, $125 million contract goes into effect starting next season. Great timing for all of that to happen.
2012 CHANGES
With Howard out for at least the first two months of 2012, the team is going to need a first baseman. The prevailing thought is to let Mayberry start at first and have Brown start in left field, but GM Ruben Amaro has said that he wants Brown to get a full year of at bats in AAA…OK then. Shortstop Rollins is a free agent, and with a weak crop aside from Rollins and Jose Reyes this offseason, the team’s options are to re-sign Rollins or possibly gift the job to young Freddy Galvis, who struggled after a late season promotion to AAA Lehigh Valley. Closer Madson is also a free agent, and the team could opt to let Bastardo take the job, or sign one of the many options on the market.
POSITION BATTLES
The only real battles on the horizon for the 2012 Phillies are the closer’s role, where they have a host of younger options that could take Madson’s role, and in the left field/first base platoon, with Mayberry and Brown fighting for playing time. Most of the other roster seems to be pretty well set in stone for 2012. This is a team that’s in a good position for next season, because despite their aging, they still have a very solid core in place.
