This season for the Rangers, Alexi Ogando was one of their four best starters. He was tied for third in fWAR among the rotation (3.6 in a rotation low 169 innings). His strikeout and homer rates each ranked third among the starters, and he had the lowest walk rate. But when it came time to set the playoff rotation, Ogando was put in the bullpen behind CJ Wilson, Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison. The reasoning put out there by manager Ron Washington was that he “wanted to protect Ogando’s innings”. That’s a good reason, considering that last season in AAA and the majors, Ogando threw 72 1/3 innings. His 169 this year is an increase of nearly 100, which is a huge jump for any pitcher.
But Washington’s usage of Ogando this postseason has made me question his decision. When working out of the bullpen, you’d expect Ogando to have his innings limited in comparison to the other members of the rotation. So far in these playoffs, he’s thrown 10 1/3 innings, which leads the bullpen. In the rotation, Harrison has thrown 10 2/3, and Lewis has thrown 11 2/3. So out of the bullpen, Ogando has essentially gotten a starter’s workload, while pitching in a total of seven games, as opposed to the two, three, or four starts by the four members of Texas’ playoff rotation, which means that he’s thrown multiple warmup pitches before seven appearances, adding to his workload.
If you want to look at pitch count, he’s thrown 151 in these playoffs so far. Lewis has thrown 204, Harrison has thrown 203 (which includes a relief appearance in game one of the ALDS), Holland has thrown 256 (which includes a relief appearance in game four of the ALDS), and staff ace Wilson has thrown 308. So compared to either of the two he’d be replacing in the rotation, Ogando has thrown about 50 less pitches, or about half a start’s worth.
Would Ogando’s presence in the rotation help Texas? I think it would. Out of the pen, he has 12 strikeouts and two walks, while allowing just one run on a solo homer, and has given up four hits. Obviously, that success wouldn’t carry over to a rotation spot, but Holland has allowed eight runs on 18 hits, five homers, six walks, and seven strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings, and Harrison has allowed five runs on nine hits, six walks, and 12 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. I think Ogando could put together much better efforts than those two men. Harrison has had some decent run prevention in his two starts, but threw a lot of pitches and only made it through five innings in each. Holland was a disaster in the ALCS against the Tigers, and a bombing against the Cardinals could cost Texas the World Series.
I understand Washington’s logic…well, kind of. As a Braves fan, the “hot hand” nonsense that plagues managers makes me roll my eyes incessantly. But if Holland gets shellacked in the ALCS, and Ogando has to come in to replace him after a short night….why wouldn’t you have just started him in the first place?
