The Cardinals bullpen wasn’t great in ERA this season, ranking eleventh in the National League with a 3.73 mark. But once they retooled things in July at the trade deadline, things changed. In August, St Louis’ bullpen ERA was a shocking 2.20, ranking second in the NL. In September though, things took a step back, as the Cardinals pen ERA was 4.56, third worst in the league. So clearly, we didn’t know what exactly what would happen in the playoffs.
The answer has been dominance. Against the Phillies in the first round, the Cardinals bullpen ERA was 3.95, but that comes with a caveat: three of those runs were allowed by Mark Rzepczynski, who threw just one inning total in three games. Jason Motte, Octavio Dotel and Fernando Salas combined to throw 10 2/3 innings of one run ball, allowing just three hits, striking out 11, and not walking one batter. Irony struck when the Cardinals won the deciding game in the series with not an inning thrown by the bullpen, thanks to a complete game shutout from Chris Carpenter.
The bullpen has been even better against the Brewers in the NLCS. In 21 2/3 innings (over five games, an extrordinarily high total considering that the entire Cardinals rotation has thrown just 22 1/3 innings), the St Louis bullpen has a 1.66 ERA. Lance Lynn, who wasn’t on the NLDS roster, has thrown 4 1/3 scoreless innings despite not striking a batter out. Salas has four innings of one hit, scoreless ball. Closer Motte hasn’t been touched in his 3 2/3 innings. And Rzepczynski, who struggled against the Phillies, has allowed just one baserunner in 2 1/3 innings. The four most used relievers in St Louis’ pen (Lynn, Salas, Motte, Dotel) have combined to allow just one run in 15 1/3 innings on six hits, three walks, and ten strikeouts.
In a series where the high in innings pitched for a Cardinals starter is five innings (Chris Carpenter in game three), Tony La Russa’s over-reliance on his bullpen could cost him at the end of the day, with fatigued pitchers coming into play. Milwaukee’s top four have almost matched St Louis’, with Francisco Rodriguez, John Axford, Takashi Saito, and LaTroy Hawkins pitching 7 1/3 scoreless over the series. The problem is, Marco Estrada and Kameron Loe have allowed 12 hits and eight runs in 4 1/3 innings this series. While the Cardinals have gotten solid pitching out of nearly their entire bullpen, the Brewers bullpen allows the game to be busted open when they don’t have a lead. And with Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallado combining to allow 17 runs in 20 2/3 innings this series, struggles from the relievers on the lower tier of things isn’t something that Milwaukee can afford right now.
Tomorrow afternoon, Edwin Jackson and Marcum will go at it with the Brewers needing a win to stay alive in these playoffs. The Brewers need to put runs on the board against Jackson, and not let St Louis go into their bullpen with a lead. If they do, the Cardinals would look to be heading to another NL pennant.
