It’d be a stretch to call Game 3 of a 1-1 series a must-win game for any team. According to WhoWins.com, 35 different teams in MLB history have come back from 2-1 series deficits, which is about 29% of all of the teams that have faced such a deficit. Not an ideal position to be in, for sure, but hardly an impossible deficit. No matter what happens in Game 3 of the NLCS tonight, both teams are going to have a chance to win the series.
That said, it seems to me that this is a bigger game for the Brewers than it is for the Cardinals. When I previewed the series, I gave the edge to the Brewers based on their pitching. In short, with Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo making four starts, it seemed to me that the Brewers might only need one good start from Shaun Marcum or Randy Wolf to take home the pennant.
Two games in, the Brewers have gotten a rough start from Greinke and an awful start from Marcum, which both continue trends from the division series. Ron Roenicke doesn’t really seem to be considering replacing Marcum in the rotation for Game 6. That means that in the final four games of the series, the Brewers will go with Randy Wolf in Game 4 and the seriously struggling Marcum in Game 6. They’ll sandwich Greinke, who’s given up ten earned runs in 11 innings in his two playoff starts this year.
Of course, projecting games that haven’t been played yet is folly in the playoffs. Greinke is as talented as just about anyone and capable of turning in a gem against any lineup. Marcum’s a talented guy, too, and one that’s had success against the Cardinals before Monday’s disaster. The Cardinals’ pitching staff isn’t that great itself. Jaime Garcia was even worse than Greinke during Sunday’s Game 1 and he’s faltering almost as bad as Marcum at this point.
Still, the Brewers perceived advantage prior to this series was based on their better pitching staff. With two ugly starts in the first two games, there’s a lot of weight on Yovani Gallardo’s shoulders tonight to deliver a good start and a win. If he does that, the Brewers know they have him looming in Game 7 and that they only need one win from Wolf/Greinke/Marcum to get there. If the Brewers lose tonight, then they suddenly need to get two of three from that trio, plus another win from Gallardo in Game 7. I don’t think that’s a situation they’d relish being in right now.
It’s still early in this NLCS. Most likely there will be three or four more games after tonight’s Game 3. This game is a big one, though, particularly for the Brewers. Two days ago, they entered Game 2 in position to deliver a serious blow to the Cardinals’ pennant chances. Tonight, they need a win or their chances are going to look awfully bleak in the series going forward. That’s both a credit to the Cardinals and an illustration of how quickly things can shift in a best-of-seven series.
