Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has never shied away from bold moves. On Tuesday, he made a bold statement, one that has many analysts scratching their heads. Apparently, Amaro thinks that the team’s best prospect, Domonic Brown, needs to spend another year at triple-A.
“He’s got some work to do in left field. He’s down in Instructional League. He’s got some things to work on his hitting … For me, I‘d keep him in Triple A and let him get 500 or 600 at-bats there.”
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This is the same Domonic Brown that feasted on triple-A pitching in 2010 to the tune of .346/.390/.561, albeit in a small sample of 118 plate appearances. Brown didn’t fare as well at triple-A this season, but still managed a .391 OBP. Remember, however, that he was coming off of a broken hand that cut short his spring training and that the injury, a right hamate bone fracture, is an injury that can sometimes sap almost all of a player’s power for up to a full year.
To me, this move is less about Brown’s future as it is about his current perceived value. Not all top prospects live up to their expectations, but it seems that most people still think highly of Brown’s future. Delmon Young is an example of a top prospect gone bust. Though he has been hot at the plate so far this postseason, Young has only been worth 1.6 wins above replacement over his career according to FanGraphs. Now, Brown is certainly not the same type of player as Young is. Brown knows how to draw a walk and will likely have an above average OBP throughout his career, whereas there aren’t many players who are as much of a free swinger as Delmon Young is.
The point here is that Brown is 24 years old and will be 25 by the end of next season. If the Phillies don’t see him as a major league assent and feel that they have better options in place, then exploring the trade market might prove to be a good idea.
The Phillies are in an interesting place in terms of their talent versus age. They still have a dynamic rotation, even if Oswalt doesn’t return and they still have some firepower in the middle of their order in Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino and a healthy Chase Utley. However, they are a team whose window for contention might be closing within the next few years. If they do bring back Rollins, they’ll have an infield that’s average age is 33.6 years old. Of that infield, only Ryan Howard is signed past 2013 — and that might not be a good thing. Given the current state of their minor league system, the Phillies don’t seem to have the pieces to retool internally beyond the 2012 season. They already have about $113M on the books for 2012 and about $82M on the books for 2013 and that doesn’t even include arbitration eligible players like Pence and Cole Hamels.
Should the Phillies decide to continue to go all-in for the present, they could use Brown to add another big piece (or pieces) to their 2012 roster.
It’s never an easy decision to trade away a top prospect, but as stated above, not all top prospects pan out. If Brown struggles again at triple-A, his trade value will take a big hit.
The Phillies have some big decisions on their hands in the upcoming winter months, the potential for Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson and Roy Oswalt to leave via free agency among them. We assumed that Domonic Brown would be the starting left fielder for the Phillies next season, now, however, you can add his name to the list of this teams’ crucial offseason decisions.
