The hot stove is far from its full throttle mode, but that doesn’t mean rumors aren’t already popping their head around the corner. Troy Renck of the Denver Post wrote (via Twitter) that the Rockies would have interest in Kevin Youkilis should the Red Sox make him available.
Youk is fresh off what was perhaps his worst season as a regular at the major league level. The problem, however, wasn’t a decline in Youk’s skill set, but rather a string of second half injuries that basically took away all of his power at the plate. Just this past week, Youkilis had surgery to repair a sports hernia, the injury that ended his season in late September. He is expected to recover in a few weeks, have a normal offseason and be 100 percent heading into spring training.
The Rockies, having released Kevin Kouzmanoff after a 27 game tryout in which he hit .255/.315/.398 with three home runs, are in need of a third baseman and have obviously given up on Ian Stewart at this point.
Even with the injury problems sapping away Youk’s production, he still held a .373 OBP and a well above league average .366 wOBA (weighted on base average). If he can stay healthy in 2012, he should easily post better numbers than those. So then the question becomes: Why would the Red Sox trade the Greek God of Walks?
The Red Sox have some big decisions to make and some holes to fill this offseason. David Ortiz is a free agent and there is no set in stone candidate to take over in right field. If the Sox decide to re-sign Big Papi, then the only place Youklilis can play is third base, a position that he has not graded well at over his career.
UZR (ultimate zone rating), though not perfect, is probably the best defensive metric out there. At one time, when he was a bit younger, Youkilis could hold his own at the hot corner. In 506 innings played at third back in 2004, Youk posted a UZR of seven. He posted a positive UZR at third once again in 2008, but the sample size of only 252 innings was perhaps too small. In 2009, Youk played 494.1 innings at third and posted a UZR of –1.4. This past season, that rating fell to –2.3 in 948.2 innings. Injuries played a role in the negative rating for sure, but even the fans scouting report had rated Youkilis as below average in speed and about average in terms of arm strength prior to the 2011 season.
If he’s 100 percent healthy, Youkilis could be adequate at third base in 2012, but he’s not likely going to be anything more than that and could easily grade out as sub-standard once again. His defense, in my eyes, is the only reason that the Red Sox would look to trade him. They have some internal options at third, such as Jed Lowrie, Mike Aviles and perhaps prospect Will Middlebrooks, but none are a sure bet to have a healthy, productive 2012. Lowrie has battled injuries throughout his career and has a major league line of .252/.324/.480 over 920 plate appearances, though he has flashed signs of brilliance from time-to-time. Aviles is a free swinger that has to hit over .300 just to bring his OBP into league average territory and he has rated out worse than Youkilis defensively over the years. Handing the job to 23-year-old Will Middlebrooks would be a bold move to say the least. He had a breakout season at double-A, hitting .302/.345/.502 with 18 home runs in 397 plate appearances. However, he only walked about five percent of the time and held a fairly high 24 percent strikeout rate. Relying on him as the everyday third baseman would be a huge risk, though his defensive ability could probably play at the major league level.
As for the free agent market at third base, well, there’s Aramis Ramirez and that’s about it. Even Ramirez’s skills at the hot corner have faded and he’ll be 34 years old by midseason.
I can’t help but wonder if Youk is nothing more than a DH at this point. Other than a freak thumb injury that ended his 2010 season, “wear-and-tear” type of injuries had never plagued Youkilis to the point that they did in 2011. He’ll be 33 on opening day 2012, which is not old, per se, but let’s just say his body-type doesn’t make him look any younger. Can he endure another season playing third everyday? I’d err on the side of caution if I were Boston and say no.
If Youk is no longer fit to play third base everyday, then moving him to DH, at least part time, is the Red Sox’ only other option, given that their all-star first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez, isn’t going anywhere. If that’s the case, then there’s no room to bring back 36-year-old DH David Ortiz, who is coming off of one of the best seasons of his career. If the Sox decide that bringing back Ortiz is their priority, then they certainly could look to move Youk, who will earn $12M in 2012 with a $13M club option for 2013 ($1M buyout).
What would the return look like for Boston if the Rockies came calling? CBSSports.com writer and editor of the Red Sox blog Fire Brand of the AL, Evan Brunell, tweeted about a potential deal:
“Rockies have Youkilis on offseason “maybe” list. If Papelbon leaves, deal Youk for Huston Street, Ian Stewart and X? Just thinking out loud” (Twitter link)
Street would certainly help the bullpen, especially if Papelbon leaves, but whiff machine Ian Stewart is a platoon player at best with middling on-base skills. He also wouldn’t represent much value on the defensive end. If the Sox aren’t so concerned with what they get defensively at third, a platoon with Stewart and Aviles, who has hit .299/.344/.470 against lefties in his career, could work.
A trade between the Red Sox and Rockies does in fact make some sense. Both teams would be taking on risk; the Rockies with Youk’s injury concerns and the Red Sox with what they do to replace Youk at the hot corner. As for now, the Sox have more important things to worry about, like if their current GM will even be with the team in a week’s time.
