At the end of the Phillies-Cardinals game on Friday, Ryan Howard collapsed to the ground in pain. I initially thought he suffered some sort of knee injury, but the diagnosis came out on Saturday: Howard had torn his Achilles tendon. This is a huge injury that typically is very painful and requires a lot of rehab. It takes around 10-12 months before the injury will be fully healed. Northwestern University quarterback Dan Persa tore his Achilles last November, and just returned to game action last week….and Persa is a gym rat who was ahead of schedule on his rehab. What does the future hold for Howard?
Well, assuming he finishes his rehab on the lower end of things, he could be back in the Phillies lineup by June….but that might be pushing things a little bit. But let’s go with that anyway, and say June. That’s still two months that the Phillies won’t have “the big piece” in the lineup. They need to find an alternative, and a big name free agent isn’t an option due to Howard’s five year, $125 million contract going into effect next season. Because of that contract, no team is going to want to trade for Howard, injury or no injury. So this team is stuck with Howard for five more years, and they won’t be sign someone like Albert Pujols or Carlos Pena or have them shift positions….because the only other position Howard can play is DH.
The option that seems to make the most sense for the Phillies right now is an internal one. They could shift John Mayberry Jr, who had a very productive 2011 season, to first base while Howard is injured, and start Domonic Brown, a top prospect who lost a bit of luster in the majors last year, in left field. This move would make sense, as it would free up money for Philadelphia to attempt to bring back Jimmy Rollins. Mayberry bashed both lefties and righties in the majors this year, but struggled against righties in AAA (.639 OPS in 79 at bats). As for Brown, he struggled against lefties and righties in the majors last year, and righties in AAA. Starting both of them every day could create a situation where both need to be platooned.
There are also some external options for the Phillies, that would be a quick fix that wouldn’t require a lot of money. Smaller name free agents this year include guys like Russell Branyan, Derrek Lee, Xavier Nady, and Jim Thome, all of whom could fill a solid role for the team off the bench when Howard returns and not kill the team while he’s out. Hell, the team could even play both young players, and use one of the veterans as a platoon partner at first base, with Mayberry also getting starts in the outfield for Brown.
But at the end of the day, how big of a loss is Howard for this team? Some fans are drawn to his high RBI totals and think of him as a solid run producer. I see a guy whose slash stats are declining every year. I see a guy who is a liability on the bases, and can’t field his position worth a damn. When I see Ryan Howard, I don’t see the soul taker that turned in an amazing sophomore season in 2006 and made himself a household name. I see a player who is older than Albert Pujols, and who has been worth a total of 3.0 fWAR over the last two seasons. Believe it or not, it wouldn’t take a miracle to replace Howard in the Phillies lineup. Hell, Mayberry and Brown could probably produce more value if given a chance. But I doubt the Phillies are going to look at it that way, and I think they’ll make a panic move that is totally unnecessary.
