On the heels of yesterday’s 5-3 win to tie the series at one game apiece, I said that the Tigers had the edge. Now, I’m here to explain why.
The next two games are in Detroit. So it’s a best of three series (essentially), and the home field advantage goes to the Tigers. That’s a big edge, especially considering the Tigers are 50-31 at Comerica Park this season, 19-7 over the final two months of the season.
The pitching matchups for the rest of the series heavily skew in favor of the Tigers as well. Today, it’ll be the game one rematch that barely happened: Verlander vs Sabathia. These two guys are the top contenders for the Cy Young award this year, with Verlander likely to win the award (and deservedly so). And while I hate quoting wins….the Tigers are 25-9 when Verlander starts this year, and they’ve won 12 of the last 13. Verlander has faced the Yankees twice this season, and had nearly identical lines in each: 6 innings, 3 runs, 4 walks, and 8 strikeouts. Both of those starts came in the season’s first few weeks, before Verlander transformed into beast mode. Sabathia has also faced the Tigers twice, in the first few weeks of the season. He’s allowed six runs in 13 innings, striking out 13 and walking five. We can’t really draw anything from the success of either pitcher against their adversary.
But what we can look at is the matchup for game four, Starting for the Yankees is the man despised by nearly every fan of the franchise, AJ Burnett. The original plan was to pitch Sabathia in game four, but the rainout screwed their plans up. That results in Burnett needing to be used. September was a month were Burnett bounced back, as he had a 4.30 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings during the month. But this comes a month removed from an 11.91 ERA in 22 2/3 August innings. And now, he’s getting thrust into the spotlight against a fearsome Tigers offense. The Tigers don’t have anything near as automatic as Verlander going in game four, with young Rick Porcello and his 4.75 ERA on the hill. But the winning factor comes into play again, and Detroit has won seven out of Porcello’s last eight starts. He’s also thrown five straight quality starts, so he may be coming around.
The final reason that I believe the Tigers have the edge for the remainder of this series. When returning to Comerica Park, their offense turns into a total juggernaut. They have an .811 OPS in Detroit, with Miguel Cabrera leading the lineup with a 1.011 mark. Alex Avila is right behind him at .949, followed by Jhonny Peralta at .898. Away from Yankee Stadium, New York’s offense turns pedestrian, with a .751 OPS. Their team OPS leader is former Tiger Curtis Granderson, at .911, followed by Robinson Cano at .880.
I firmly believe that the Tigers are going to win this series now. Seeing Sabathia for just one full start helps them immensely. Replacing one Sabathia start with a Burnett start is just some damn good luck for them. Considering that the Tigers didn’t plan on using Verlander on short rest, the postponement doesn’t necessarily kill their gameplan.
