The Cardinals didn’t look like a playoff caliber team at all in 2011. They lost ace Adam Wainwright in spring training with a blown out elbow, and it looked like it would be a rough year. But they started off 16-10, and were tied for first place in the NL Central with the Brewers at the end of June. Milwaukee began to pull away after the All-Star break, and St Louis needed another avenue to get into the playoffs. On September 1st, the Braves had an 8.5 game lead in the NL wild card race, and it looked like the Cardinals were dead and buried. Something funny happened over that final month, and on the strength of an 18-8 month, the Cardinals overtook the Braves and snuck into the playoffs on the season’s final day.
Their reward for winning the wild card? The team with the best record in baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies. This is not an easy task for the Cardinals, but I believe that St Louis has the potential to win the World Series. Here are a couple of reasons why.
Offense. In Albert Pujols (.393), Lance Berkman (.402), and Matt Holliday (.385), St Louis has three players that have a wOBA of at least .385. The only other playoff team with as many as two is the Milwaukee Brewers, with Ryan Braun (.433) and Prince Fielder (.408). As a team, the Cardinals .332 wOBA is the best of all National League teams. After the team traded future star Colby Rasmus at the trade deadline, and picked up Rafael Furcal, the Cardinals have been clicking on all cylinders, with a 33-21 record over the season’s final two months. Jay has a .333 wOBA on the season (a tad higher than Rasmus’ .330 mark in St Louis), while Furcal is at .323. Furcal has been a huge upgrade over the awful Ryan Theriot and his .292 wOBA at short.
The team has also gotten solid production from its bench. Allen Craig has a .399 wOBA in 219 plate appearances, getting time at six positions this year. The 27 year old’s success likely won’t continue past this season, but he’s been a solid hand so far for the Cardiinals off the bench. Veteran Nick Punto, normally known for his glove, has added a .350 wOBA off the bench in addition to great defense and has accrued 1.8 fWAR in just 63 games.
Rotation. If the Cardinals had a healthy Wainwright, they probably could have overtaken the Brewers in the Central. St Louis had four starters to make at least 30 starts, and three of those four had ERAs around the 3.50 mark. Jake Westbrook was the outlier at 4.66, but he likely won’t be a playoff starter. And why not? Because at the trade deadline in the Rasmus deal, the Cardinals picked up Edwin Jackson from the White Sox, who has been invaluable to the team. In 12 starts, Jackson has a 3.58 ERA and is more than holding his own. The Cardinals top four aren’t exactly as great as Philadelphia’s, or even Milwaukee’s, but with the exception of young Jaime Garcia, they’re all battle tested veterans, unlike Milwaukee or Arizona’s trios. Experience comes into play during the playoffs, and I think the experience of St Louis’ pitching staff will help them greatly.
Bullpen. The Cardinals bullpen was a horror show early in the season, thanks to forme closer Ryan Franklin and his 8.46 ERA. Since Franklin left town, the closer’s role has been split between Jason Motte and Fernando Salas, both of whom have performed very well in the role. Both have ERAs slightly above 2.00 (2.25 for Motte, 2.28 for Salas), and are striking out close to a better per inning while keeping their walks low. The Cardinals also strengthened their bullpen in the Rasmus deal, also picking up Octavio Dotel and Mark Rzepczynski. Both of those two have struck out over 11 batters per nine innings and have taken innings away from guys like Brian Tallet and Miguel Batista, neither of whom performed very well before being shipped out of St Louis. The foursome make a very scary back end of the game.
No team in the National League had a better record than St Louis in the month of September, and streakiness plays a big role in determining a World Champion. And it’s not as if the Cardinals were beating up on scrubs in September, either. They went 9-2 against the Brewers, Braves, and Phillies, two playoff teams and one team that was a playoff team until the season’s final day. This team has momentum on their side, and they’ve definitely got the potential to be crowned World Champions in a couple of weeks.
