The Dodgers are 79-77 and were eliminated from contention in the NL West awhile ago, currently sitting in third place. This season has been dominated by talk about their owner’s bankruptcy proceedings and seeing what will happen with the team’s financial future. So why are many eyes focused on LA over the season’s final games? Two players, Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp, are threatening to make history in the National League. They could both win the triple crown; Kershaw in pitching and Kemp in hitting. Many of the more sabermetrically inclined fans out there think the distinction is completely stupid….but christ, get some sense for history people. This doesn’t happen every day.
We’ll start with Kershaw. With one start remaining (Sunday against the Padres), he’s tied for the league lead in wins with Ian Kennedy at 20, leads the league in ERA with a 2.27 mark (Cliff Lee is second at 2.38), and leads the league in strikeouts with 242 (Lee is second with 232). Kennedy starts tonight against the Giants, and Lee starts on Mondy against the Braves, so by the end of the day on Monday, we’ll know whether or not Kershaw is going to be the league leader in all three categories.
Assuming the Phillies only let Lee pitch five innings, and that he shuts out the Braves over those five, his ERA would fall to 2.33. Kershaw could allow as many as three runs in seven innings of work and still win the ERA title, as that would only raise his to 2.31. As for the wins, Kennedy will likely just be getting a tune-up against the Giants, with much of the Diamondbacks starting lineup getting a rest. It could be a little difficult for him to get a win, which would clinch at least a tie in the win category for Kershaw. The last winner of the pitching triple crown was Jake Peavy in 2007. He won the Cy Young award.
Now, let’s focus on Kemp, the more exciting candidate right now. He’s third in the NL in batting averaage at .326, with Jose Reyes and Ryan Braun ahead of him at .329. He’s tied with Albert Pujols for the league lead in homers at 37, and he has a commanding six RBI lead in RBI over Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard. I think the RBI lead is safe, with Fielder and Howard likely getting time off due to their teams already clinching a playoff berth. Pujols will likely be playing every day, with his Cardinals still clinging to life in the NL wild card race. Pujols only has five homers this month, after three straight months with at least seven. He does have an excellent 1.112 OPS tough, and as he continues to pound the balls, they could find their way over the fence.
The batting average race is a tough one. Assuming Kemp gets 20 at bats over the season’s final five games, after accounting for walks. To push his batting average above Reyes and Braun, he’s need to go 9/20 over the season’s final five games, which would give him a .330 average. This assumes that of course, Reyes and Braun don’t have any sort of variance with their averages, which is a low possibility. Kemp is also red hot during this month of September, OPSing 1.122 and hitting .363.
I don’t think Kemp WILL win the triple crown, but he’s got the best shot that anyone has had in years. The last NL player to win the triple crown was Joe Medwick in 1937. 74 years since this has happened, and it could happen this year. Regardless of how you feel about RBI and batting average, it’s still pretty cool.
