Because Boston is one of the two poles of the ESPN/FOX/Bud Selig baseball empire and because Red Sox fans have been freaking out so hilariously in the last week, most baseball fans have their eyes fixed on the American League wild card race. This is despite the fact that the Red Sox have five games left against the Orioles after their double-header today while the Rays have seven against the Yankees. With less than two weeks left in the season, that makes the math awfully hard for the Rays, no matter how good they look or how bad the Red Sox look. Just by taking one game against the Rays this weekend and one against the Orioles today, the Red Sox are keeping the Rays at bay.
All of this focus on the AL is keeping attention away from the NL wild card race, which may be just as interesting. With the Cardinals eeking out a 4-3 win in Philadelphia to take three of four from the NL front runners and Omar Infante hitting a walk-off two-run homer to beat the Braves 6-5, the Cards are just 2 1/2 games behind the Braves for the last playoff spot in the National League.
The Cardinals are scorching hot right now. Their win tonight is their 10th in their last 12 games and their 17th since dropping to 67-63 after a loss to the Dodgers on August 24th. The Braves, meanwhile, were 78-53 — 10 1/2 up on the Cardinals — after a loss to the Cubs on August 24th. Since then, they’ve only won nine times and their wild card lead has almost entirely evaporated as a result.
Still, the Cardinals have nine games left on their schedule and the Braves have eight. That’s not a lot of time to make up 2 1/2 games in the standings. If the Cardinals go 6-3 to end the season, they still need the Braves to go 3-5 just to tie them for the wild card and force a 163rd game. That seems like it’s possible just because it’s a continuation of what the two teams have been doing for three weeks, but it doesn’t take much to swing the season on a dime in the final days of the season. The bottom line is if the Braves just get back to playing decent baseball, there’s a good chance they’ll be able to hold the Cardinals off.
The advantage the Cardinals have here that their fellow challengers in the American League don’t have is the schedule. The Cards’ last nine games are against Mets, Cubs, and Astros. In other words, they’re expecting to win six and probably thinking they could take seven or eight of these last nine without much trouble. The Braves schedule isn’t much tougher, but it’s not quite the same cakewalk; they have the Marlins (two games), the Nationals, and the Phillies waiting for them. The Phillies should have homefield advantage sewed up by next weekend, though, so the Braves won’t face the full brunt of their power as the Phils prepare for the playoffs.
So can the Cardinals close the gap? They can and I think I like their chances just slightly more than the Rays, even though they’re dealing with a bigger deficit right now. It’s honestly not terribly likely, though. They’re going to have to stay red-hot and hope that the Braves stay cold, while neither team has a terribly difficult schedule. Most likely, this late surge is going to be just a bit too little, too late.
Also last night: Mariano Rivera set the all-time saves record at 602, which actually made the Yankees beating the Twins buzz-worthy. Ian Kennedy picked up his 20th win by holding the completely absent Pirates to one hit over eight shutout innings, striking out 12. The Brewers lost to the Cubs, which means their lead over the Cardinals is down to 5 1/2 games. There’s almost zero chance they blow that lead at this point, though some Brewer fans are freaking out about it anyway. Last night’s full results here.
Tonight’s games: We’ve got four games with potential playoff implications (I have officially eliminated the Angels in my mind now that they’re five behind the Rangers and 4 1/2 behind the Red Sox). The Rays go to the Bronx, where Ivan Nova and Wade Davis take the mound. The Red Sox will play the Orioles at home again, sending ex-O Erik Bedard out to face Rick Vanden Hurk. In Miami, Randall Delgado tries to slow the Braves slide against Anibal Sanchez. And the Cardinals travel to Flushing, pitting Edwin Jackson against Mike Pelfrey. Any other baseball action you see tomorrow night may or may not be a figment of your imagination, but either way it won’t be terribly meaningful. Tonight’s full schedule is here.
