When you’re the 3rd overall pick, people expect you to hit, and they expect you to dominate the lower levels. If you don’t, you hit a weird grey area. Some scouts still see the guy who did enough to be picked so high, and others begin to believe that what they saw has not and will not translate in pro ball. Josh Vitters is that guy, and he has been for the past year.
Scouts still see what made them think he was worthy of a top selection. He looks good in a uniform (6-2, 200 pounds). He has elite bat speed, and he has excellent hand-eye coordination. Vitters even has an excellent arm. Though he has all of those tools, Vitters has had problems turning those into skills due to a couple tragic weaknesses. As for the bat speed and hand-eye coordination, these are offset by Vitters’ lack of patience and plate discipline. It’s been oft said that he swings at so many pitches because he knows he can hit them, but once pitchers learned about his lack of patience, they pitched him further out of the zone, in areas he could no longer hit so well. As for his rocket arm, his other defensive attributes are so bad that he might have to go to right field, where his bat needs to play.
Others believe, however, that Vitters’ weaknesses are overstated. Vitters will be 22 for most of next season, and that’s entirely too early to give up on a prospect who still has the tools that gained him that place. Though his minor-league OBPs haven’t topped .325 since 2008, there remains optimism that the prolonged issues at the plate can be solved if Vitters finally realizes that he has to be more patient. Some even think Vitters can still be productive with just a modicum more of patience.
So we’re left in an incredibly awkward state of mind in regard to Vitters, but I don’t think it has to be that way. Sometimes, we get so caught up in Top 10 lists and ranking people and not being wrong that we forget that prospect rankings change so quickly anyway. Teams don’t run their organizations by Top 10 lists. They let their players play until the production/age/level balance tells them the player just isn’t good enough anymore. When we talk about Top 10 lists (and I’ll probably be doing some soon), Vitters will be in the bottom part or out of the Cubs’ Top 10, and that’s fine. He’s not performing up to expectations, and there are others who are. That doesn’t mean, however, that Vitters is done as a prospect. Should he make the needed adjustments, he’ll shoot right back up the rankings. The Cubs will simply let him play, understanding that a 22-year old in AA or AAA next season will still be a valuable thing to have, and they can wait for him to develop. Always bet on the tools, and the Cubs don’t really have any other choice.
