Drafted out of high school by the Washington Nationals in the 41st round, there weren’t a lot of expectations for Brad Peacock, but while many consider this to be Peacock’s breakout campaign, there were indications this might be coming, not to mention that 2010 might have been a breakout. Peacock was one of the last draft-and-follows, wherein a player was drafted one year, went to play college ball for one season, and was signed before the next draft (the new signing deadline ended that practice), and his promise laid in his arm strength. The Nationals have since changed that arm strength into a top prospect.
Peacock began his minor-league career in 2007 in Rookie Ball, posting a decent 2.27 K/BB rate, but he took a small step back in 2008, getting shelled in Hagerstown after performing okay in the New York Penn League. Restoring his prospect status in 2009, Peacock posted a 2.41 K/BB rate that was much better than his 1.10 from the last bit of the previous season, and he had an even better 2.70 K/BB at High-A Potomac. Questions remained, however, about Peacock as he had only struck out 6.9 per 9 in Hagerstown and even lower 5.1 at Potomac. Though he had encouraging walk rates to off-set the low strikeout totals, he was precisely the type of pitcher that gets hit much harder at upper levels.
But Peacock, who had always thrown in the low-90s, saw an uptick in velocity and improvement in his change-up. Always sitting 91-93, Peacock began hitting the mid-90s with more frequency, though he still sits primarily in the 91-94 range, and being able to hit 95-96 when you need it can help. Peacock adds a plus knuckle-curve, and as he’s pitched more, his command of the pitch has also improved significantly. But the major improvement has been his change, which was below-average at best and has become fringe-average. Due to this improvement, we’ve seen that K/9 jump to 10.3 in Potomac in 2010 to 11.8 in AA Harrisburg and 9 in AAA Syracuse.
Most will champion Peacock as an example of how anyone can make it, even from the 41st round, but he’s more a symbol of why teams focus on velocity. Peacock was an infielder before, but the Nationals saw the velocity and believed they could develop around it. Pitchers can succeed without velocity, but it was the 90+ mph fastball that intrigued the team. When secondary pitches develop around it, the fastball becomes an even better. Pitchers use the fastball more than any other pitch, and it is, therefore, an extremely important pitch. Scouts won’t ignore someone with good secondary pitches and little velocity, but they know those guys have a smaller margin for error.
Peacock shot up from a sleeper prospect to one of the better pitching prospects in the game. His fastball/curve combination is good enough to be a late-inning reliever, but if he can develop that change a bit more, he could be a useful middle-of-the-rotation starter, which would fit nicely behind Strasburg and Zimmermann. Peacock’s command (4.5 BB/9 in AAA) is often cited as a sticking point, but seeing as he hasn’t been a full-time pitcher his entire life, I’d bet on it improving plenty. My sticking point might be how he’s performed at the end of seasons. The Nationals have challenged him with promotions at the end of the last four seasons, and he’s seen a decline of performance each time. This could simply be because he’s facing better hitters, but because he’s come back so well at the beginning of the next season, I fear that he may not have the seasonal durability to pitch an entire season (season-high of 150 innings this season), though I realize he may still be getting used to pitching so much. Peacock has made substantial improvements over the past few years, but I’m not sold he’ll stick as a starter.
