Nearly every media outlet picked the Cleveland Indians to finish fourth or fifth in the AL Central in 2011. Their starting pitching was weak, the offense was unproven, and the bullpen was a mess. Here we are on May 1st, and the Indians are 19-8, 4.5 up in the Central and holding the best record in baseball. What in the name of Albert Belle and Charles Nagy is going on here?! The Indians are playing top notch baseball right now, and here’s the scary part: some of their players haven’t even peaked yet.
It seems odd to say that a team thats 11 games above .500 on May 1st hasn’t peaked. But with this Cleveland team, it could be true. The team’s two best hitters, catcher Carlos Santana and outfielder Shin Soo Choo, have struggled all season. Santana’s line sits at .191/.324/.382, while Choo’s mark is at .250/.322/.394. Santana is currently stuck in BABIP hell (hovering around the .200 mark, when league average is around .300), while Choo’s BABIP is 70 points lower than his career mark. Both players are capable of posting excellent on base percentages with good power when playing to their potential, and a .300/.400/.500 line for Choo has been his norm for the Indians. Santana is in the same boat, though with his limited major league sample, we can’t make those kind of conclusions about him. But when you consider that he’s already walked a team high 18 times and is tied for the team lead with five home runs, you can see the kind of output he’s bound to produce when some more balls start to bounce his way.
But that’s not all for the Tribe. Matt LaPorta, in his third year in the majors, is starting to show the potential that made him the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia deal back in 2008. He won’t hit for a high average, but has good plate discipline and a lot of power. His .263/.344/.513 line is a huge boon for the Indians offense. Outfielder Michael Brantley, acquired in the same deal as LaPorta, is also making an impact with more walks than strikeouts at the age of 23. Brantley doesn’t have great power, but his ability to get on base is invaluable for this team.
And then, there are the guys in there “where did THIS come from?” camp. Shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera has five homers already this season, when his career high is six. Jack Hannahan, known more for his glove and nomadic ability between organizations over the last few years, is providing the Indians with fantastic defense at third base and a bat the likes of which he’s never seen before in his own hands. Even if he can’t keep it up with the bat, his glove makes him worth starting on a daily basis. He’s posted amazing fielding numbers at third in every conceivable fielding category you can think of, both sabermetric and standard.
There is one more category of hitters for the Indians hitters, and that is the “they’re still in the league?” category. Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore, beset by various injuries over the last few years, are back in the lineup and doing major damage to opposing pitching. Though he’s currently out with a strained tendon in his foot, the man they call PRONK is having his best season 2006. His line is .342/.393/.566, and he’s showing the most power he’s had since that 2006 season. Sure, he’s playing a little over his head now, as the .407 BABIP can attest to. But he’s not a drain on the team’s offense like he was the past few seasons. There’s also Grady Sizemore, who’s coming back from microfracture surgery in his knee. Sizemore, who was among the “best player in baseball” talks a couple of years ago before getting beaten down with injuries, has four homers in 12 games and already has a team leading eight doubles. Like Hafner, he’s got a sky high BABIP, but Indians fans must be relieved to see him flying around the field like he was back in 2008.
Cleveland’s pitching staff lacks a veteran stabilizer past Fausto Carmona, but the youngsters are holding their own. Justin Masterson, acquired from Boston in the Victor Martinez deal, is a 5-0 groundball machine who’s pitching style defies the laws of FIP. Josh Tomlin is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA, but he’s doing it with smoke and mirrors. Carlos Carrasco and Carmona have both struggled this year, but aren’t nearly as bad as their ERAs indicate. The thing about these four starters, is that none of them are very flashy. They all strike out a low amount of hitters, but they also all keep the walks at a manageable level. Carrasco and Masterson have both done a great job at keeping the ball in the yard, but Carmona and Tomlin have struggled in that regard. The fifth starter’s spot in the rotation has been a revolving door thusfar, with three pitchers getting starts there so far. It looks like that job is now rookie Alex White’s to keep, as he impresssed in his debut this weekend against the Tigers. It’s a very solid young core.
The biggest surprise for the Indians though, has been their bullpen. Last season, the bullpen was only three deep with closer Chris Perez, Jensen Lewis, and Rafael Perez posting ERAs under 4.00. This season, every active member of Cleveland’s pen, with the exception of veteran Chad Durbin, has an ERA of 4.00 or lower. Three players, Perez, Vinnie Pestano, and Joe Smith, have ERAs under 2.00. Perez and Tony Sipp are both under 3.00 as well. As we all know, relievers are generally a very volatile commodity, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see any of these guys go out tomorrow and bomb horribly. But for now, they’ve been very effective at protecting the leads given by their offense.
The Indians right now are driven by their fantastic offense. The pitching has been good, but it hasn’t had to be with how many runs the team’s hitters are putting on the board. But there is one caveat regarding this team right now: of their 19-8 record, the team is only 8-6 against teams who finished last season at or above .500. They’re cleaning up against the weaklings of the league, going 11-2 against the likes of the Royals, Mariners, and Orioles. May is a much tougher month for Cleveland, with series against the Angels, Red Sox, Reds, and six against the Rays. If the Indians are able to escape May, it doesn’t get easier in June, with ten straight against 2010 playoff teams to start the month off. It’s only going to get hard Indians fans, but take pride in your team’s hot start. The future looks bright.
