On August 1st, the Cardinals lost to the Brewers to fall 3 1/2 games back in the NL Central. If you’d told them after that game that in exactly one month they’d be finishing up a sweep of the Brewers in Milwaukee, then made them guess where they’d be in relation to the Brewers in the standings, what do you think they would’ve guessed?
Probably not 7 1/2 games back.
The Cardinals didn’t even have a bad August (15-13), but the Brewers were so ridiculously red hot (21-5) that it didn’t matter. Now the Cardinals have 25 games left on the schedule; even if they catch fire and go, say, 20-5, they’ll need the Brewers to go 12-12 just to pull into a tie in the Central. The two clubs only have one three-game set left, while the Cardinals still have three at home against the Braves and four on the road in Philadelphia left on their slate. The Brewers have a four-game set with Philly as well, but it’s at home and the rest of their schedule is filled with the likes of the Cubs, Pirates, Astros, and Rockies.
All of which is to say that while it’s nice for the Cardinals that they got their sweep, it’s still going to take a near-miracle for them to even up with the Brewers to have a shot at the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus still lists the Brewers chances of winning the division at 98.9%, with the Cardinals having a 1.1% chance of catching them and a 1.1% chance of catching the Braves (who they’re 8 1/2 games behind).
I want some excitement in September, too, so I’m happy to grasp for straws with everyone else and hope that maybe the Brewers unsustainable hot streak is over and the Cardinals have things in gear, but right now it looks like if you just stopped paying attention to baseball between now and the playoffs, the only thing that even has the potential to change is which AL East team is the wild card. And injuries. It’s a very strange feeling, to have all of the divisions sewn up so early, especially when back just a month or so it seemed like there were going to be some very interesting playoff races.
Also yesterday: There weren’t many games yesterday. Most notably, both AL West teams with a chance at the playoffs won (Rangers beat the Rays 7-2 behind CJ Wilson, Angels beat the Mariners 4-3 behind Ervin Santana). That keeps Texas’s division lead at a steady 3 1/2 games. The Indians got crushed 7-0 by the A’s and lost a chance to make up a game on the Tigers, who lost again in Kansas City. Yesterday’s full results are here.
Tonight’s games: The White Sox and Tigers kick off a weekend set with the Tigers 5 1/2 up on both the Sox and Indians. With the Indians heading to Kansas City, there’s a chance that the AL Central race will be much more interesting come Monday. It would really take a sweep by the White Sox to ensure that happens, though, and Justin Verlander is pitching for the Tigers tonight. So maybe that won’t happen. The Angels, meanwhile, host the Twins and the Rangers go to Boston, so that’s another race that could tighten up this weekend. The aforementioned Brewers are heading to Houston to try and snap out of their funk, while the Cardinals are hosting the Reds. Tonight’s full schedule is here.
