Everyone knows the story of Old Yeller. In the good ol’ days, a family gets a golden retriever and he becomes beloved, chasing off bears, hunting varmints and being man’s best friend. Unfortunately, the dog would contract rabies in a fight and the older son, who grew up with Yeller and was the closest to him, had to shoot him dead so that he wouldn’t infect the family, as his dad was not there and he had to be the man of the house. It’s as gut-wrenching a story as a child would see growing up.
In Major League Baseball, there is always a few players who get a whole heap of playing time because of their reputation of great years past. They become both coach’s and GM’s best friend, but then because of ignorance of current performance, contract status, a yearning for the gold ol’ days when he was a top-flight player, or because there’s simply nobody else to put there, they continue to work at a rate where if the GM made a call to get the next best thing in the minors, they would get a similar performance at a much cheaper rate.
Of course, MLB isn’t a Strat-O-Matic league where players can be switched out at the whim of a release or trade, but some times, it goes a bit too far. In the cases of the players below, they should have been given the Old Yeller treatment, because they just aren’t cutting it at all at the Major League level. The cut-off is 400 plate appearances this season with a WAR that is 1.0 or lower by both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference and at least 6 years of MLB service (so post-arbitration), and they will be ordered in plate appearances from most to least.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Seattle – .274/.314/.331 in 593 PA, -0.1 FanGraphs WAR, -0.5 B-R WAR
I previously wrote about Ichiro’s incredible decent to replacement level a month ago. Nothing has changed for the future Hall of Famer, but a combination of his looming contract and his 10 years of incredible performance had Seattle keep things as they are in right field for now. In all honesty, Ichiro HAS earned his spot, as out of all the players on this list, he’ll be the only one definitely heading for the Hall of Fame, but it’s still sad to see him playing like this when people remember him for so many other great moments in his career.
Juan Pierre, OF, Chicago White Sox – .284/.335/.336 in 587 PA, -0.1 FanGraphs WAR, 0.5 B-R WAR
Pierre’s descent to replacement level hasn’t been without warning. Since his best single season with the Cubs in 2006, he has been hovering around replacement level each season afterwards. This coincides with a move from center field to left, meaning that the speed he is so well known for really is not helping much with his dwindling offensive performance. The White Sox have made the mistake of leaving him in left all year long while Dayan Viciedo stewed in the minors, only coming up when Carlos Quentin went down to injury (surprise, surprise). With the White Sox in the heat of a pennant race with an offense that has holes as big as Adam Dunn’s swing this year, Pierre’s fourth outfield production being swapped out for Viciedo could have meant a couple extra wins under Chicago’s belt.
Aubrey Huff, 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants – .243/.301/.376 in 525 PA, -0.9 FanGraphs WAR, -1.2 B-R WAR
Yes, that is indeed a 7 win swing for Huff from his incredible 2010 performance that had him amongst MVP candidates and helped lead the Giants to the World Series championship. There is a lot wrong with him as he’s hitting homers at half the rate he was last year and has seen his line drive rate dip, as well. Add in a horrible glove at both first base and his downright dismal outfield performance earlier this year, and his performance has made the Giants faithful squeamish. Of course, I wrote about his struggles beforehand, with Sabean going all-in on Huff’s performance by rewarding him with a contract that guarantees $22 million total through next year, meaning that even Brandon Belt destroying Triple-A didn’t allow Sabean to just move him to first base and replace Huff like Buster Posey did the year before with Bengie Molina. Belt has finally gotten a chance as a regular in left field and is delivering well for a rookie, but had the Giants not given Huff the extension in the first place and did with Belt what the Atlanta Braves did with Freddie Freeman, they could have been looking at something along the lines of a 4-5 win improvement alone from the move had Belt worked out the kinks, and a chance to see themselves neck-and-neck with Arizona as opposed to almost out of the race entirely.
Alex Gonzalez, SS, Atlanta Braves – .227/.255/.341 in 519 PA, 0.6 FanGraphs WAR, 0.5 B-R WAR
Gonzalez’s power surge last year made him an above-average shortstop for both Toronto and Atlanta in 2010, but even with his good glove at short, the veteran has seen his power come back down to earth, and with it, his performance as a whole. He’s always been an OBP suckhole (only .290 for his career), and it’s is a major dent in what has been seen as a pretty dang good Braves line-up. Many have called for top prospect Tyler Pastornicky to get the call to replace him, and while he has been hitting up a storm at Triple-A, many feel that with Gonzalez on his way out after this season that Pastornicky will most likely arrive in 2012.
Alex Rios, OF, Chicago White Sox – .212/.251/.319 in 478 PA, -1.2 FanGraphs WAR, -1.4 B-R WAR
There is little doubt that once Rios was signed to his contract before the 2008 season, his performance went way down. He was league average in ’08, but his horrible ’09 forced him into waivers to be claimed, and Kenny Williams bet on him making a bounceback to his pre-contract years. He was above average last season, but this year, he has absolutely plummeted to the depths of Triple-A performance, and is looking for like an up an down player than someone who will be consistently good. With him and Pierre making up 2/3 of the Chicago outfield, the White Sox have been hurting for production, and with Viciedo an easy fix for Pierre, the White Sox are stuck with Rios because they really didn’t have anyone to bring up from Triple-A that was worth benching their longest contract on the books. However, a deal that could have been swung to bring in a capable fourth outfielder even would have been better off than having Rios take up so many at-bats.
Hideki Matsui, DH/OF, Oakland A’s – .258/.324/.391 in 474 PA, 0.6 FanGraphs WAR, 0.3 B-R WAR
It’s been a long time since Matsui was league-average or better (2009 and mainly as a DH), but it looks like he’s about to be on his way out as his knees are failing on him and his pop has all but disintegrated. He still has the walk rate that made him valuable at the plate, but his home run rate is way down and his pop-up rate is the second worst of his career Right now, the A’s have newly-acquired Brandon Allen, someone who fills the DH void very well, and looks to be grooming himself for the full-time role in 2012, possibly splitting time with Chris Carter. This is one of the few people on the list that has someone ready to step in right away at little cost to the team.
Raul Ibanez, OF, Philadelphia Phillies – .238/.285/.410 in 471 PA, -1.6 FanGraphs WAR, -1.0 B-R WAR
When the then 36-year-old Ibanez was inked to a 3-year contract contract by Philadelphia after his out-of-nowhere 2008 season, many believed that he would disappoint much like Huff has this year for San Francisco. While Huff bombed right away after getting the contract, Ibanez waited a while until doing so for Philadelphia, being just above replacement level in 2010 before totally bombing out this year. He has been incredibly bad in the field this year (-19.1 fielding runs) while being replacement level at the plate. John Mayberry, Jr. and his surprising run in the second half has cancelled out Ibanez’s performance so far, but with this being the final year of his deal, Ibanez might be going out on a sour note as part of a team that is considered the favorites in the National League this year.
Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Baltimore Orioles – .274/.305/.387 in 466 PA, -0.5 WAR in both
The other 29 teams in baseball probably knew what the Orioles themselves might have known when Vlad was available after his comeback year in 2010 with Texas: That he was close to being done and was a product of environment with the Rangers. Unfortunately for one of my personal favorites to ever play, Vlad has been terrible for Baltimore this year and looks like this might be his last run unless Texas wants to employ him as a platoon DH at home. One of the most feared hitters in baseball during my lifetime looks to be on his last legs, as well.
Orlando Cabrera, 2B/SS, San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Indians – .240/.270/.308 in 438 PA, -1.1 FanGraphs WAR, -0.3 B-R WAR
On his ninth team in his professional career, Cabrera has seen his normally good glove go by the wayside the last three seasons, his OBP go down in each of the last FIVE seasons, and is still getting employed to the tune of over 3,100 plate appearances over that time. His glove held up the first two years, but after that, Cabrera became backup infield fodder and shouldn’t have been given as many plate appearances as he has. He has 29 WAR by FanGraphs and 18.5 by B-R over his career, however, and should be commended for having one of the better gloves in all of baseball during his peak years with the Angels and Expos. The Indians made the right move in going to Jason Kipnis, who is in the running with Dustin Ackley and Danny Espinosa for best young 2B in all of baseball, but the Giants…well, the Giants haven’t had a shortstop that has been league-average or better since Rich Aurillia a decade ago. And Cabrera obviously hasn’t been the answer.
Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox – .251/.288/.388 in 435 PA, 0.3 FanGraphs WAR, 0.0 B-R WAR
Adam Dunn, DH/1B, Chicago White Sox – .163/.290/.289 in 435 PA, -2.5 FanGraphs WAR, -2.4 B-R WAR
Folks, that’s $198 million in guaranteed money to two of the more consistent players in baseball over the last five years. Dunn has been terrible defensively and many believed his move to the DH league would be good for him, but that obviously hasn’t been the case. His 35.9% strikeout rate is ludicrous even for him. And his ISO of .126 is the lowest it’s been in 10 years. And Crawford, after getting that huge contract, has probably pressed too much and hasn’t been able to get things going at all, although he should be commended from improving from a -1 to -2 WAR level to start up to replacement level. Both players are in the inenviable position of living up to the contracts they have been given, and Crawford’s will be easier to deal with considering he is on a team with so many superstars that can make his performance take a back seat (See: Lackey, John). One problem for Boston: If this is how Crawford gets paid for his peak, what should Jacoby Ellsbury ask for on his next contract? And could it be as much as Crawford’s? Can they afford him?
Jason Bay, OF, New York Mets – .231/.317/.339 in 427 PA, 0.2 FanGraphs WAR, 0.5 B-R WAR
After spending years of being one of baseball’s great underrated talents before being able to shine on Boston’s big stage, Bay has taken a nose-dive into a spot that sees him as one of baseball’s most overpaid players. He has barely 2.0 WAR averaged over his time as a Met, and looks like another player who seemed to play well away from the pressures of big contracts and high expectations. Statistically, he’s down across the board in home run rates and line drive rates, and although he’s striking out at a lesser rate than he was used to at his peak, his secondary skills just haven’t been there. The Mets still have him on the hook for 2 more years and $35 million at least (2014 sees a $17 million option or a $3 million buyout), so for now, they will have to hope he gets hot at some point and is expendable, as their outfield prospects are far and few between at the upper levels, with Kirk Nieuwenhuis (Hey! Spelled it right on the first try!) being the only guy right now who could plug in and be productive, although he’s hardly a top-flight prospect.
Vernon Wells, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – .216/.249/.392 in 425 PA, 0.0 FanGraphs WAR, -0.4 B-R WAR
Finally, the man that Alex Anthopolous somehow got rid of for something of value cleans up at the bottom of this list. In the year in which he makes the most of the 7-year, $126 million monstrosity given to him by J.P. Riccardi in 2006 (where the Angels paid $18 million of the $23 million total), Wells has had his worst season as a regular, playing average defense in a corner outfield spot and hitting at a rate that Adam Dunn wouldn’t mind having. The worse news is him making $21 million a year over the next three seasons with Peter Bourjos having a breakout year and Mike Trout arriving on the scene like a sex machine (he had two homers today, giving him five on the year in only 72 PA). The choice the Angels will have isn’t an enviable one, but Bourjos has earned his playing time in center for the time being and Trout is outperforming the veterans. Next season, Wells might be on the outside looking in as a semi-regular DH with the Angels hoping against hope that he gets something going to make the contract okay.
All in all, the players on this list are guaranteed over $300 million in contracts before they are all said and done. That’s a lot of money given to players who have earned a grand total average of -6.4 WAR, meaning they’re approximately $330 million overpaid. Not exactly a team you’d want to run out there every day. In fact, you might be better just letting them go without worrying about performance. But this isn’t fantasy baseball, and teams will have to grit and bear it for now.
