We have written about Mariners rookie Michael Pineda a lot this season. Back in July, he seemed to be a lock to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. Here we are at the end of August…and that award isn’t looking so likely anymore. Pineda still leads all AL rookies in fWAR at 2.9, but that lead is getting slim. He initially was destroying the field, but now, there are a pair of guys hot on his tail, including one of his own teammates.
Dustin Ackley was called up in the middle of June, and has been one of the best second basemen in the game since getting recalled, with a 2.5 fWAR and an .830 OPS. That fWAR is tenth among all second basemen (in just 62 games), and is fourth in OPS, behind just Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, and the criminally underrated Ben Zobrist. That’s pretty amazing for a 23 year old who was riding busses in Tacoma a couple of short months ago.
Another candidate who has burst onto the scene lately is Desmond Jennings of the Rays, who was widely projected to start in left field for Tampa Bay this season, but was beat out for the job by Sam Fuld. Fuld took the league by storm and had a strong April, but has fallen off the cliff since, and has been an offensive drain on the Rays. So naturally, he’s gotten 230 plate appearances after that hot April. He was thankfully shifted to part time duty in June, but instead of Jennings getting the call, Justin Ruggiano got a majority of the playing time in left. Jennings got called up at the end of July, and in 35 games, he’s already equaled the 2.5 fWAR that Ruggiano and Fuld have totaled in 439 plate appearances this season. He has a stellar 1.073 OPS this season, and already has eight homers and 14 stolen bases. The stolen base total is fourth among all AL rookies, and the homer total is sixth.
As for the rest of the rookie crop in the AL, the best candidate of the full-season crew would be Mark Trumbo of the Angels, but he’s got his faults too. Trumbo has been LA’s starting first baseman all season, and has a slash line of .258/.296/.484. That sub-.300 on base percentage horrifies me and saps a lot of his offensive value, but he does lead all AL rookies with 24 homers and 73 RBI, a pair of sexy categories for sportswriters who vote on the award. Trumbo’s teammate, Angels closer Jordan Walden, is getting some love too, due in part to his 26 saves. Walden has struck out 55 in 50 innings, and has a solid 2.70 ERA. But at the end of the day, relievers only win awards when they’re absurdly dominant or there are no better candidates. Walden doesn’t really fit either criteria (but Craig Kimbrel in the National League does).
But let’s talk about why we’re having this conversation. Pineda’s ERA has risen all the way up to 3.71, thanks in part to a 6.75 ERA in July and a 4.70 ERA in August. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Seattle shut him down shortly out of concern for his long-term future, and I wouldn’t necessarily object to that. Pineda’s ERA spikes can be attributed to an increase in homers allowed and nothing to do with his actual performance, as his strikeout and walk rate have remained consistent. But at the end of the day, writers love to stare at ERA, and I don’t think that will be good for Pineda’s chances. Solid Septembers from both Ackley and Jennings could possibly lead to them surpassing Pineda in the overall voting. I’m interested to see the dynamic in votes between Ackley and Pineda, since they’re both members of the same team and could steal votes from each other.
Who WILL win the award? At this point in time, I’m not sure. It really all will come down to September, because if Jennings has a month like he did this month, he could absolutely run away with the award.
