How many things in life have a 1% chance of happening? According to Google, there’s a 1% chance that an asteroid impacts Earth in 2029, the effects of which I just don’t know since I didn’t read the article (too depressing!) and I’m about as far from being a scientist as you can get without being a cast-iron skillet. Google also informs us that 1 of every 100 adults is in jail, and 1 of every 100 kids have autism, though, so maybe let’s not trust this annoyingly grim thing purporting to be a search engine.
Let’s instead focus on a positive: there is, according to Cool Standings (which is the best thing with the worst name, and not to be confused with Ron Rightnowar, who is the worst thing with the best name) roughly a 1% chance that the Colorado Rockies make the playoffs as NL West champions. And I’m here to tell you that they are going to do exactly that.
Oh, and also: that asteroid won’t hit Earth. I am a selective believer in long odds.
We know that it’s highly improbable that they pull off the feat, but what would the Rockies have to do in order to make it happen? They’re currently 63-69, or at least they were when I wrote that, but I bet they lost their game tonight just to make this article seem dumber, but now I see that they didn’t play tonight at all, so, yeah, still currently 63-69. The two teams in front of them are the Diamondbacks, which with a 72-59 record, hold a nine game lead on the Rockies, and the Giants, who are currently losing to the Astros because they understand good comedy. The Giants are two and a half games better in the standings than our plucky, purple heroes, but like I said: they’re losing to the Astros, so let’s just write them off right now.
I kid, obviously, but the Giants are, to my eyes, almost less of a contender than the Rockies. Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo are both injured, creating a huge hole at the back end of the bullpen, and Carlos Beltran hasn’t done much since coming westward, which, uh, I guess just kind of perpetuates the gaping hole that the team calls a lineup. They’ve been running a smoke-and-mirrors show all season, as their MLB-worst offense has been outscored by nearly 20 runs, and with the spate of injuries they’ve suffered, I don’t see them as a big threat.
And as for Arizona, their biggest advantage is that nine game lead. I know that’s basically like saying Spider Man’s biggest advantage is his web slinging and spider sense, or that Batman’s biggest advantage is ninja training and unlimited wealth, so let me clarify: I look at their lineup that features one legitimately above-average bat in Justin Upton and their rotation that’s improbably holding down opposing offenses despite lacking any depth beyond a strong front two in Dan Hudson and Ian Kennedy and their bullpen that has somehow rebounded from being historically awful to being … competent, and I just cannot understand how they’ve managed to play .550 baseball this season.
In any event, Cool Standings projects the Diamondbacks for 88 wins and the Giants for 85. For the Rockies, then, to win 89 games and the division (and that’s exactly what I predicted) they’re going to have win 26 of their remaining 31 games.
I kinda need to pause a minute here, and make sure that I can actually continue to write this article considering that last little fact. I mean, going 26-5 to close out the season is a much more daunting prospect in my mind than a 1% chance of something happening.
Ok.
Yeah, alright, I still got this. I hope that you, like me, are able to cast aside all your previously held notions of statistical probability and how the universe works and, for good measure, the way light reflects off a goldfish’s scales, so that we can continue on this thought exercise as brothers in a crusade against the tyranny of overwhelming odds. To the evidence!
For one, they’ve done this before. Or, at least, the handful of players who were on the 2007 iteration of the franchise have done this before, when they won 21 of 22 games to close out the season en route to the Wild Card spot. A similar run could be in the cards this year, and if it happens, then you have the regression gods to thank; a dismal May – mid-June stretch has dragged this team’s record down lower than it should be. So there’s (a tiny degree) of math on the Rockies’ side!
And, sure, you might say that the events of 2007 have little-to-no bearing on the team’s chances this year, but consider this: the two teams wear the same jerseys. Seriously! The colors are all the same and everything. Plus, their mascot, Dinger, was around in ’07, and I bet he’d like to repeat that experience. And what Dinger wants, you better believe Dinger gets. Try to stop him, and just see what happens to what you used to call your dreams.
None of you are safe!
If actual analysis is more of your thing, here’s something for you: this team can really hit. They have the fifth-best wOBA in MLB, trailing only the Cardinals among NL teams, and boast a lineup composed almost entirely of better-than-average hitters. The only laggard, Mark Ellis, is less than 10% worse than your average hitter, and much of that is due to a rough first half in Oakland. Plus, when your lineup features MVP candidate Troy Tulowitzki and outstanding performances from each of Carlos Gonzalez, Todd Helton (!) and Seth Smith, you can afford to have one guy post a sub-100 wRC+. And that’s to say nothing of the retooled Dexter Fowler, who’s been much better since a stint in the minors to fix his swing, or Chris Iannetta, one of the best-hitting catchers in the league. This team has, can and will put up runs aplenty; they’re third in the NL in runs scored, and are healthy coming into this final stretch run.
Of course, their run differential is exactly 0 for a reason: their starting pitching has been as bad as the offense has been good. It’s a nice little seesaw act they’ve got going; they’re 5th in wOBA and 25th in FIP, which is a textbook way to match your runs scored and runs allowed. And that’s accounting for what Ubaldo Jimenez turned in before being shipped out, or what Jorge de la Rosa accomplished before going under the knife, or the excellent rookie campaign Juan Nicasio was working on before breaking his neck, so admittedly this is a rough patch to work through for the Rockies apologist. But it’s not all bleak; Jhoulys Chacin has been good, and … well, when your three best starters are unavailable for one reason or another, you’re going to have some trouble filling their spots in the rotation. That’s why you see Kevin Millwood getting a chance to play zombie, but it’s also why you get to see hot prospect Alex White make his debut. And who knows; when the rosters expand for September, maybe some youngsters catch fire like Jimenez and Franklin Morales did four years ago.
Of course, there are no high-ceiling guys like that who’ll be available in September unless the organization rushes Drew Pomeranz up, so that may be wishful thinking. But the pitchers do have two things working for them: an excellent bullpen and an easy schedule to finish the year. Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle and Matt Lindstrom all have sub-3.00 FIPs, Rex Brothers is capitalizing on his prospecty goodness by getting into a groove after a rough start, and Huston Street, while not the most reliable closer in the game, is doing well enough this season that the Rockies have five legitimate options to shorten up their games.
Speaking of which, the Rockies’ last 31 games break down as follows: 7 against San Francisco, 6 against Arizona, 6 against San Diego, 4 against Houston, 3 against Cincinnati, 3 against Los Angeles and 2 against Milwaukee. San Diego, Houson, Cincinnati and LA are pretty easy opponents, and Milwaukee will be cooling off and coasting to their division title by the time the Rockies play them. That leaves us, then, to consider the double-edged sword of 13 games against the two teams ahead of them in the standings. On one hand, the fastest way to make up ground on the teams in front of you is to beat them, and the Rockies will have plenty of opportunities to do that. On the other, obviously, losses at this stage of the season would be devastating to the Rockies’ playoff hopes.
But y’know what? I’m betting on a one percent chance here. And that means having faith that Tulowitzki and his merry band of mashers will take that double-edged sword and skewer the Diamondbacks and Giants to second and third place finishes. Don’t believe me? Fine. You might be right, but you better get your licks in before 2029 comes and that asteroid wipes us out.
