There’s been an awful lot made of low MLB attendance in 2011. Ballparks all over the country and turning up empty. Just last night, attendance was so low at the Pirates/Nationals game that Sam Miller of the OC Register was able to count almost every single person in the stands at PNC Park. He came up with a paltry 1,100 or so patrons. How big of a problem does baseball have here?
Jeff Passan took a look at leaguewide attendance and found that ticket sales are down about an average of 500 per game. That’s about 1.3 million fewer tickets over the course of the season. That’s not a huge dip, but it is a downwards trend for the league and the empty stands are obviously worrying people around the league.
That being said, I can’t help but wonder if we need to wait a few months to see how this is really going to play out. I know that Dave Cameron has said that early-season attendance numbers are significant predictors of full season numbers, but there are some huge fluctuations this year (the Dodgers and Mariners are way down, the Rangers and Blue Jays are way up) that may be worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses.
Another reason that this problem is a tough question to answer is that baseball teams only give attendance figures in terms of sold tickets. The paid attendance to the aforementioned Pirates’ game last night was over 12,000 as the game was a makeup of Friday’s rainout (that contributed pretty strongly to the low in-park figure, plus, the weather was miserable, and the Penguins were playing). In fact, even though PNC has looked pretty much empty for all of the Pirates’ home dates in 2011 save their first series, the Pirates’ average attendance is slightly up this season. Of course, the weather has been pretty abysmal in Pittsburgh so far this season, which means that it’s fair to ask if these empty stadiums are a reflection of trying external factors or if they’re a sign of worse things to come.
It’s a tough topic to address right now. Objectively, 500 tickets per game doesn’t seem like a lot. Subjectively, there sure seem to be a lot more empty stadiums this April than there have been in past seasons. Even if it’s not something you feel comfortable drawing conclusions from right now, it’s definitely worth watching as the season wears on.
