The Mariners fancy themselves contenders, but part of the reason they're being met with skepticism (other than the fact that we've seen this kind of optimism before, only to have expectations blown up by June) is that there are more than a few questions still surrounding this team. We'll do our best to narrow it down to three.
Can Robinson Cano live up to his contract?
Well, no, you can't prove you're worth 10 years and $240 million in one season. But already it's clear that the contract is going to be a story for most of the season, whether it's columns about things like "for that much money, he needs to be a LEADER and teach everyone about winning" or the inevitable "is he mailing it in now that he's paid?" columns the first time he doesn't sprint to first on a grounder hit to second.
The most Cano can do this season is continue to hit like he did the past few seasons, and at least delay concerns that his deal will become an albatross. If he can avoid becoming the next Josh Hamilton or Albert Pujols signing, then maybe the media circus dies down a bit. But the Mariners will need to start winning sometime soon, otherwise Cano will go from being compared to Hamilton and Pujols to being compared to A-Rod's stint in Texas. The "he needs to lead" stuff probably needs to stop either way, though. Being a leader was not in the terms of the contract. That's not why they're paying him $240 million. They're paying him because they needed offense, he was the best bat on the free agent market and he proved last season he can carry an otherwise terrible lineup.
Can Felix Hernandez get a little run support?
No one has done more for the "Kill the Win" campaign over the past few years than King Felix, but this isn't about his personal won-loss record. Despite another phenomenal season in 2013, the Mariners only went 14-17 in his starts last year, averaging 2.6 runs scored in the losses. Of those 17 losses, 10 came with the M's scoring 2 runs or less. Since he won the Cy Young in 2010, the only season the Mariners have managed to post a record above .500 in Hernandez’s starts was 2011, when they went 17-16 and he had his worst season in that stretch.
Of course, it’s not just Hernandez they’ve been struggling to support. Over the past four years Seattle has produced some of the lowest-scoring teams in franchise history. The 2010 squad scored just 513 runs, second-worst in the team’s 37 seasons. 2011 ranked third-worst, 2012 8th-worst and 2013 10th-worst. It’s a problem for the entire pitching staff, but especially one for Hernandez, who’s putting together a resume as one of the best pitchers of his generation and is seeing his prime is going to waste.
Can they realistically compete with Oakland and Texas?
The Mariners finished 25 games behind the A’s last season, but you don’t act the way Seattle did this offseason if you don’t expect to compete in a hurry. This isn’t looking like a gradual build around Cano, where they’d be content with 82 wins this season and go from there. They’re built to push for a playoff spot. Unless both wildcard teams are coming out of the AL West this year (and with the AL East looking stacked once again this year, it seems highly unlikely), the Mariners are going to have to leapfrog at least one of last year’s top two finishers in the division.
The Rangers were a win in Game 163 away from a fourth straight playoff appearance and the A’s are coming off back-to-back division titles. Texas signed Shin-Soo Choo and traded for Prince Fielder. Oakland lost Bartolo Colon and traded away Brett Anderson, but signed Scott Kazmir and solidified their bullpen with trades for Luke Gregerson and Jim Johnson, while also signing Eric O’Flaherty. Even if you figure Oakland stays at roughly the same level as last season, Seattle still has to contend with that revamped Texas lineup, and that’s before you even think about a possible bounceback year for the Angels.
Still, the pieces they’ve assembled so far at least provide a small glimmer of hope. The pitching figures to be good once again, and if the reconfigured offensive lineup can finally start putting runs on the board, the chances for a playoff run are there. Of course, everyone was saying the same things about Seattle at this time last year, after they added Kendrys Morales and Mike Morse.
