One reason that the Mets aren't considered among the top teams in the NL East might be because it's difficult to name four players that are truly difference makers. But a closer look at the roster shows that the Mets do indeed have four horsemen, a quartet of players that will determine how successful the team is this season. And that's without Matt Harvey, who would unquestionably be listed among the Mets' four best players, but is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Nonetheless, the Mets could be a surprising team in the NL East race with strong seasons from the following four players.
David Wright
The leader of the Mets' four horseman is the team captain. He's the cornerstone player, the face of the franchise. Wright will begin the second year of his eight-year, $138 million contract extension in 2014, the deal that made him a Met for life. Unfortunately, he had to fight some injuries in the first year of that deal that limited him to 112 games. His 492 plate appearances finished below the 502 required to qualify for the Triple Crown categories. But had he qualified, Wright's .307 average, .390 on-base percentage and .904 OPS would've ranked him among the top 10 hitters in the NL. His 6.0 WAR was the sixth-best in the league.
Staying healthy is obviously a priority if Wright is to again put together a MVP-caliber season for the Mets. (Realistically, a third- or fourth-place finishing in the NL East and a below-.500 record will prevent him from receiving serious consideration.) Without him, the team has no chance of playing anywhere near contention and fan interest would surely dwindle toward apathy.
Perhaps the Mets could get by for a short period with Daniel Murphy moving to third base and Eric Young Jr. playing second. But Wright is the one impact hitter in the Mets lineup that can put the ball in play and get on base consistently, while also hitting for power. It's a completely different batting order without him in it.
Bartolo Colon
The Mets raised several eyebrows around MLB upon inking the 40-year-old Colon to a two-year, $20 million contract. Perhaps offering him a second year was the difference between signing him and not signing him. But it's not an outrageous overpay by any means. Colon is coming off a fantastic season in which he finished second in the AL with a 2.65 ERA.
No, he doesn't strike out batters, while giving up a bunch of hits because he stays in the strike zone and throws so many fastballs. But with a good defense behind him and a big ballpark to pitch in, Colon should have just as much success with the Mets as he had the past two seasons with Oakland. Of course, there's a risk that he won't be able to locate his pitches as well and could struggle against unfamiliar NL hitters.
But with Harvey out for the season, the Mets needed a No. 1 starter and veteran stability in their rotation. Colon should provide that, along with another 200-inning starter that should keep the rest of the pitching staff from wearing down. He could be part of an excellent rotation in 2015 with Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard that could help the Mets into contention.
Daniel Murphy
Murphy is often overlooked when talking about the Mets' best players. But that hasn't prevented him from being frequently mentioned in trade rumors in recent years. Murphy's .286 average last year was the lowest it's been in the past three seasons, but he compensated for that with 38 doubles, 13 home runs and 78 RBI, along with a surprising 23 stolen bases (in 26 attempts). Among NL second basemen, only Matt Carpenter and Chase Utley were more productive for their respective teams.
But that could actually make Murphy a more attractive trade target this year. If manager Terry Collins is convinced he needs Eric Young Jr. as a leadoff hitter that can bring some speed to the lineup, he'll have to play either second base or left field. Putting Young in the outfield might be better, but the Mets would likely be able to get more for Murphy in a trade. Yet other than Wright, and perhaps Marlon Byrd, no one was a better all-around hitter for the Mets than Murphy last season. The added speed component makes him even more of a threat when he reaches base. The Mets have a better lineup with Murphy at second base.
Zack Wheeler
Colon will be the Mets' No. 1 starter and Jonathon Niese could get the opening day start. But Wheeler will be the team's most important starting pitcher this season with Harvey sidelined for the year. The 23-year-old was shut down last season after reaching 168.2 innings, nearly the same workload Harvey threw in his rookie season. The natural progression should then be for Wheeler to approach 200 innings this year. Will he make the same jump from promising young arm to ace-caliber starter that Harvey did in 2013?
That's probably asking a bit too much from Wheeler, though he was regarded as a better prospect than Harvey two years ago. Harvey's emergence last season may have been unexpected, at least by a year. And Wheeler hasn't shown the same strikeout stuff in the majors that Harvey has. But in the minors, Wheeler punched out hitters with the same regularity. As he refines his mechanics and location in his second season — and first full year as a major league starter — perhaps more strikeouts will come.
The Mets have other dependable arms with Colon, Niese and Dillon Gee. But Wheeler has the most promising arm. If he can develop into a top-tier starter this year, that makes 2015 even more promising.
