Baseball is a funny game. Unlike football, contracts are fully guaranteed – once you commit to a player, you're all in on him unless they retire or you manage to trade them and their contract to another club. And sometimes, clubs over commit money to players that aren't worth as much as the team thinks. Case in point – the Philadelphia Phillies. Ryan Howard is still owed $85 million by the Phillies through 2016, and he has been worth a total of 1.8 fWAR over the last four years. Jimmy Rollins is coming off of the worst season of his career, and is owed a minimum of $16 million over the next two years. Jonathan Papelbon's two years in Philadelphia have been two of the worst three seasons of his career, and he'll be owed at least $26 million over the next two years.
To put it mildly, this team is not in a good place with their payroll – and that doesn't even begin to consider the reasonable, yet massive, amounts of money owed to Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee. Your 2014 Philadelphia Phillies, everyone!
Depth Chart (as of 2/11)
C: Carlos Ruiz
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Cody Asche
LF: Domonic Brown
CF: Ben Revere
RF: Marlon Byrd
SP: Cliff Lee
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Kyle Kendrick
SP: Miguel Gonzalez
SP" Roberto Hernandez
CL: Jonathan Papelbon
New Faces
Marlon Byrd stunk as a Phillie ten years ago – but he's back now, serving as the club's new every day right fielder. The team re-signed Carlos Ruiz to serve as the every day catcher, but he has a new backup in veteran Wil Nieves, and he could be joined on the bench by *another* guy who was a Phillie ten years ago, Bobby Abreu. I actually really liked their pickup of reliever Brad Lincoln, but starting pitcher Roberto Hernandez just gives the team a third (or fourth) fifth starter.And really, aside from a supply of even more minor league signees, that's all the Phillies did this winter. They're not exactly pulling eyes off of the Eagles.
Departures
The Phillies actually didn't lose anyone of significance this winter – with the exception of Roy Halladay, who retired after struggling immensely in 2013. But aside from Halladay, Philadelphia's biggest loss was…backup catcher Erik Kratz, who was traded to Toronto for Lincoln? Despised utility infielder Michael Martinez? Terrible reliever J.C. Ramirez? Roger Bernadina, who was a member of the active roster for a little over a month? John Lannan, who only made 14 starts? Yeah, the team didn't exactly make any blockbuster acquisitions…but they didn't lose any key players either.
Impact Rookies
The plight of Philadelphia's farm system has been much-discussed over the past couple of seasons after GM Ruben Amaro gutted the farm system in numerous trades. What's left isn't great, but there are some players that could help out in 2014 and much further down the line. Cesar Hernandez seems destined to take over Martinez's utility role at some point in the future, but unlike Martinez, he can actually hit a little bit. Cuban signee Miguel Gonzalez is expected to be a part of Philly's 2014 rotation, but he could end up in the bullpen – he's a blank slate at this point in time. Pitcher Ethan Martin made 15 appearances in the majors in 2013, and could end up in the bullpen for the long haul.
That brings me to the two players that have relatively high ceilings and could be key parts of the Phillies in 2014 and beyond – Maikel Franco and Jesse Biddle. The 21-year old Franco smashed 31 homers in 2012 between high-A and AA, and his hitting abilities don't appear to be much of a question. His position becomes an issue, because while the Phillies are trying to add first base to Franco's third base skills this spring, he's blocked by a certain former MVP at the position. If Cody Asche struggles at third, the Phillies could be inclined to give Franco the nod there and abandon his first base experiment, but Asche needs to fall off a cliff first.
The other player that could give Phillies fans hope in 2014 is Jesse Biddle, Biddle struck out 154 hitters in 138 1/3 innings in AA, but also walked 82. He'll probably start his year in AAA, but if he plays well and the rotation starts to fall apart, he could get the call to the majors sometime this summer.
Position Battles
The Phillies have a dilemma on their hands, and it has to do with a 27-year old that can hit the hell out of the ball but doesn't have a position. Ideally, Darin Ruf's position would be designated hitter, but of course, that's not a solution in the National League (much to the chagrin of my father, mind you). If Howard isn't ready to roll on Opening Day, or he eventually gets hurt once again, Ruf would be the first one to get the nod instead of Franco. But really, there's no way that the Phillies are going to bench Howard or Marlon Byrd for Ruf on an every day basis if both are healthy – they're simply making too much money, and the stale culture of baseball doesn't throw players like that onto the bench no matter how little they deserve to play every day.
The only other positions that are really in doubt are on the bench and in the bullpen. Bobby Abreu could crack the bench as a pinch hitter, which would probably mean the end of John Mayberry Jr.'s time with Philadelphia. Non-roster invitees Reid Brignac, Ronny Cedeno, and Andres Blanco have a shot at unseating Freddy Galvis or Kevin Frandsen from a bench position, but so does the aforementioned Cesar Hernandez. On the mound, Jonathan Pettibone is in a battle with Miguel Gonzalez and Roberto Hernandez for one of the final two spots in the rotation. If Gonzalez loses that battle, he'll likely head to the bullpen cost someone like Joe Savery, Justin De Fratus, or Chad Gaudin a job. Either of those guys can also lose out on a bullpen slot to Jeremy Horst, Phillippe Aumont, Ethan Martin, or Michael Stutes as well. Hey, you can't knock the Phillies for having multiple options for those relatively minor positions.
Injury Concerns
Ryan Howard has missed half of each of the last two seasons, dealing with a ruptured Achilles and a torn meniscus. You have to wonder what's next for the 34-year old. Reliever Mike Adams isn't expected to be ready for Opening Day following major shoulder surgery last summer, and surgery to repair a sports hernia in December. Ben Revere fractured his foot in July and didn't play in the second half – that's big for a player who relies a lot on his speed like Revere. Chase Utley had a largely healthy 2013, but has had issues with both knees in the recent past. Domonic Brown has been tagged with the "injury-prone" label, and struggled down the stretch while dealing with tendonitis in his Achilles. Carlos Ruiz has missed time over the past two seasons with lower bodies injuries (plantar fasciitis, strained hamstring), and that's not something you'd like to see out of a 35-year old catcher. Newly-acquired reliever Brad Lincoln had a bout of shoulder inflammation last spring, and struggled in 2013 despite keeping his velocity strong.
But hey, aside from all that…at least Jimmy Rollins has been healthy for nearly his entire career.
Best Case
Honestly, what *is* the best case scenario for the Phillies? This team isn't built to contend, but they won 102 games just two seasons ago with a similar core of players. Maybe Howard stays healthy all year and turns back the clock, and that's enough to push the Phillies into wild card contention.
Worst Case
I don't think this is a 100-loss team. But a 95-loss team? Yeah, I could definitely see that happening, especially if Ruiz, Howard, Utley, and Rollins continue to show their age and none of the younger talent, like Brown, Revere, or Asche, take steps forward.
Realistic Scenario
I think third place is the ceiling for the Phillies, and the bottom of the National League is the floor. If they win more games than last year's 73, I'll be shocked.
