Rematch! After facing each other in the ALDS last season, the Tigers and Athletics cross paths again in the divisional round of the playoffs. (Detroit won in five games.) As was the case last year, the A's have home-field advantage over the Tigers. But this time, Oakland won't have to play the first two games of the series on the road, like it did under last season's wacky, one-time division series format. Could that give the A's an edge this year?
Game One: Friday, 10/04 in Oakland, 9:37 p.m. ET. Max Scherzer vs. Bartolo Colon
Game Two: Saturday, 10/05 in Oakland, 9:07 p.m. ET. Justin Verlander vs. Sonny Gray
Game Three: Monday, 10/07 in Detroit, 1:07 p.m. ET. Jarrod Parker vs. Anibal Sanchez
Game Four (if necessary): Tuesday, 10/08 in Detroit, 5:07 p.m. ET. Dan Straily vs. Doug Fister
Game Five (if necessary): Thursday, 10/10 in Oakland, 9:07 p.m. ET. Max Scherzer vs. Bartolo Colon
Starting Pitching: This series features the two best starting staffs in the AL based on ERA. The Tigers led the league with a 3.44 ERA from the starters, while the A's ranked second at 3.72. Detroit certainly has the marquee names with Scherzer and Verlander pitching in the first two games. Fister might be the concern here. Though it was only one start, he allowed seven runs and 13 hits over five innings in his one appearance against the A's this year.
Colon continues to defy time, finishing with the AL's second-best ERA behind Sanchez. He wasn't able to pitch against the Tigers in last year's ALDS because of a 50-game PED suspension. The surprise might be Gray getting the call for Oakland in Game 2. But like Parker, A.J. Griffin and Tommy Milone last year, Gray's a rookie who might not have name recognition but has pitched extremely well. In 10 starts, he's compiled a 2.85 ERA with 61 strikeouts in 60 innings.
Scherzer and Verlander were actually better on the road this season. Away from Detroit, Scherzer had a 2.28 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a strikeout rate of 10.5 per nine innings. Verlander's ERA was a half-run lower and he struck out two batters more per game. But Colon and Gary were both excellent at home, so the Tigers don't really enjoy an advantage there.
Bullpen: While the starting rotations seem to be evenly matched, the A's enjoy a clear advantage with their bullpen. Collectively, Oakland relievers had the third-best ERA in the AL. Grant Balfour had another excellent season as closer, notching 38 saves and striking out 72 batters in 62.2 innings. Ryan Cook was a strong setup man, striking out nine batters per nine innings and compiling a 2.54 ERA. Lefty Sean Doolittle, who allowed a .188 average versus southpaws, will be quite a weapon against Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez in late innings.
The Tigers wish they had that kind of reliability with their relief corps. Joaquin Benoit eventually established himself as the closer, posting a 2.01 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 67 innings. Any fears that taking him out of the setup role would weaken late-inning relief were settled by Drew Smyly, who had a 2.37 ERA and struck out 81 batters in 76 innings. But the rest of Detroit's bullpen is a mess.
Last year's postseason closer, Phil Coke, pitched so badly that he wasn't included on the ALDS roster. Al Alburquerque provides strikeout stuff, but could just as easily walk the bases loaded. And trade deadline pick-up Jose Veras has largely been a disappointment. The saving grace could be Rick Porcello, a starter who will pitch in relief during the postseason. He had the highest strikeout rate (7.5) of his career this year and could get some big groundball outs with his sinker.
Lineup: With likely AL MVP Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers certainly have the biggest bat in this series. But do they have the best lineup? Detroit had the best team batting average in the AL, and ranked second in OPS and runs scored. Fielder struggled for much of the season before finally heating up in August. And left field has been a hole in the lineup all season, to the point that Jhonny Peralta is on the ALDS roster with the expectation of playing at that position instead of shortstop.
The A's placed third in OPS and runs, despite subpar seasons from Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes, who were so impressive last year. Oakland has their own MVP candidate in third baseman Josh Donaldson, who hit 24 home runs with an .883 OPS. He was one of four A's to hit more than 20 home runs this season. This is a deeper batting order than the one Detroit faced in last season's ALDS, with manager Bob Melvin shuffling platoons to get the best matchup. If Oakland hitters make Tigers starters work and get them out of the game earlier, the A's could feast on Detroit's soft middle relief.
It might be worth noting that Cabrera hit .250 with a .668 OPS against the A's in last year's playoffs. He batted. .240 versus Oakland pitching in 29 plate appearances during the regular season.
Bench: For all of their star power, the Tigers don't have much depth on the bench. Don Kelly provides defensive versatility with surprising occasional power and Ramon Santiago can help out all around the infield, but neither player should be expected to make an impact in later innings. The guy to keep an eye on is Peralta. Detroit has him on the ALDS roster for his right-handed bat and thinks enough of him to possibly try him in left field. If anyone on the Tigers' bench comes through with a big hit, it could be him.
As with their lineup, the A's have a deeper bench than Detroit's. Seth Smith and Chris Young may not boast high averages, but could provide some pinch-hitting power. (Smith could be particularly dangerous as a left-handed batter.) Perhaps the most interesting aspects of Oakland's ALDS roster is Melvin's decision to carry three catchers. Stephen Vogt and his left-handed bat figure to get most of the playing time with the Tigers starting four right-handers, but Derek Norris and Kurt Suzuki give Melvin options against left-handed relief.
Overall: Melvin told reporters that he felt this year's team was better than the club that won the AL West on the final day of the season and was a relatively postseason newcomer. Judging by how the A's pulled away from the Rangers in their division, eventually winning by 5.5 games, he might be right. This isn't a surprise team like it was last season, yet Oakland confidently fulfilled and arguably surpassed expectations in what was expected to be a tight AL West race. The A's very well could have defeated the Tigers in last year's ALDS and true home-field advantage might give them an edge this time around.
The Tigers came into this year with their sights set on returning to the World Series. Perhaps enduring the slog of the regular season and finally getting to the playoffs will be a relief for a team that seemed to sag under heavy expectations. Yet Detroit doesn't appear to be playing at its best coming into the postseason and had trouble against the A's in their seven regular-season meetings. That bullpen could cost the Tigers dearly during what figure to be late-inning grinds. A strong lineup and starting rotation have to assert themselves early to overcome that weakness.
