At the All-Star Break, we did some voting for awards here at the Outside Corner. In our AL MVP voting, Adrian Gonzalez of the Red Sox finished second, while teammate Jacoby Ellsbury was sixth, and Dustin Pedroia was 11th. Just a month later, and we’ve got ourselves an interesting situation: Gonzalez is now the least valuable of the three. What’s going on in Boston to cause that to happen?
Gonzalez has fallen into a nasty slump since July began. In July, he “only” had an OPS of .949 (lower than his marks in May and June, but higher than April), and in August, he’s had his worst month yet, batting .261/.320/.348. Gonzalez has only homered twice since the beginning of July, after 15 combined in May and June. He’s still having a great year, with his 5.2 fWAR and .973 OPS while providing Gold Glove defense at first base, but he’s been surpassed by a pair of his teammates.
Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2010 was a lost year, marred by broken ribs that resulted in him playing in only 18 games. There was trade rumors at mid-season, to the Braves. Boston didn’t pull the trigger, and they sure are glad they didn’t today. Ellsbury has an .899 OPS, which ranks second among AL centerfielders to Curtis Granderson. Unlike Granderson, Ellsbury has also posted top notch defense, with a 7.5 UZR in center and a +11 mark on the DRS system. Just for the hell of it, he’s stolen 30 bases too, and could go 30/30 for the season, as he’s got 19 homers as well. A year after being worth -0.1 WAR, he’s been worth 6.0 WAR this year, and is a fantastic catalyst for Boston’s offense.
They have another catalyst too, someone who is more than familiar with MVP talk. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia has been completely awesome for Boston, and is far and away the best second baseman in baseball, with a WAR of an amazing 6.7, right around the level where he won the MVP award in 2008. Pedroia is one of the most complete players in the game. He’s walked more than he’s struck out, he has 15 homers which is coming up on his career high, he’s 22/26 on stolen base attempts, he’s hitting .310, and he is providing amazing defense at second base. Only Jose Bautista has been more valuable than Pedroia this year, and considering that Bautista is having one of the most amazing offensive seasons we’ve seen since Barry Bonds…that’s pretty special.
Despite the fact that Pedroia and Ellsbury are both having better seasons than Gonzalez up to this point, I can definitely see Gonzalez getting more support in the MVP voting. Why? A lot of the value in Pedroia and Ellsbury are tied up in their defense, which is one of those things that voters tend to overlook a lot. Sure, Gonzalez is playing great defense at first base too, but first base defense is one of those things that tends to get ignored, since it’s a largely offensive position. Center field and second base and positions that are primarily defense-first, and otherworldly defense, like that provided by the two Red Sox stars, often gets overlooked in the grand scheme of things.
But there is hope. When Pedroia won his MVP in 2008, he beat out teammate Kevin Youkilis, who had an OPS nearly 100 points higher than Pedroia’s. When Jimmy Rollins won the MVP in 2007, he beat out Matt Holliday and Prince Fielder, who both had OPSes more than 120 points higher than his. There is precedent here, and it will be interesting to see if Pedroia (or Ellsbury for that matter) is able to gain more support than Gonzalez when the award winners are announced in November.
